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A Dangerous Escalation Between India and Pakistan Under the Shadow of Nuclear Arms

During my years in Pakistan, I reported on many such stories. Kashmir is the most sensitive nerve for both countries. Every incident that takes place there brings India and Pakistan dangerously close to drawing their swords.

At the center of the current tension is an incident that took place in Pahalgam. The knot of terrorism and politics in Pahalgam is now shattering the silence of the Himalayas. This mountainous region, stained by the blood of 26 tourists, has reignited the chronic crisis between India and Pakistan, bringing back Noam Chomsky’s 2013 warning: “Humanity is caught between nuclear war and ecological collapse.”

But this time, the threat stems not only from warheads, but also from drying riverbeds and the toxic rhetoric of religious fanaticism.

The attack on tourists in Kashmir forced New Delhi to quickly point fingers at who was behind the trigger. The Modi government is trying to lay the blame on Pakistan. However, according to reports in the foreign press, “Delhi’s accusations lack the kind of evidence that would be accepted under international law.”

In reality, this move is seen as an attempt to cover up the failure of normalization in Kashmir, especially after India revoked its autonomous status in 2019. As is happening all over the world these days, “amid the nationalist media’s shouting, war cries are being used to mask intelligence failures.”

THE WEEPING WATERS OF THE INDUS

The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty was one of the rare diplomatic successes that kept the two countries apart through three wars. But India’s unilateral suspension of the agreement recalls the UN’s warning of “the greatest water crisis of the 21st century.”

According to Pakistan’s Ministry of Environment, Himalayan glaciers have shrunk by 23% over the last 20 years. The resulting 40% drop in water flow could leave 500 million people facing drought by 2040. Both countries must remember that “rivers are not the property of politicians, but the shared heritage of humanity.”

After the attack, nationalist rhetoric spread in the Indian media, further intensified by calls to “cleanse the evil of the Ramayana.” But the truth is this: as religion becomes a tool in the hands of political power, it poisons the masses and suffocates the language of peace.

THE NUCLEAR ROULETTE TABLE

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that India possesses 164 and Pakistan 178 nuclear warheads. The 2019 Balakot crisis, which was narrowly averted by U.S. intervention, is even more dangerous today due to the current breakdown in communication. Defense expert Rajesh Basrur offers a chilling warning: “An Agni-V missile, with its 5,000 km range, can strike not just Islamabad, but also Beijing.”

And what about radioactive fallout? According to the WHO, even a regional nuclear war has the potential to plunge 2 billion people into famine.

The waters of the Indus nourish not borders, but humanity. The failure of Modi and Sharif to come to the negotiating table is an act of pride that holds billions of people in the world’s most populous nations hostage. We must remember that wars have brought down even the strongest armies—and that peace is not the courage of the weak, but the wisdom of the brave.

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YUKSEL DURGUT
YUKSEL DURGUT
YÜKSEL DURGUT is a journalist with a primary focus on global politics and foreign affairs.
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