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HomeHeadlineA Glimpse of Conflict: Analyzing the Iran-Israel Missile Standoff

A Glimpse of Conflict: Analyzing the Iran-Israel Missile Standoff

When I received information that Iranian missiles were launched and rapidly heading towards Israel, set to strike after midnight local time, I couldn’t sleep. With one eye on the BBC and the other on the internet, I stayed up all night. Browsing through global channels, I realized that leaves had been cancelled and extraordinary broadcasting had begun. Two photos from the “situation room” at the White House featuring President Biden were shared. A constantly open “Live – Tel Aviv” window on the screen was fueling anxieties.

On Sunday, with the first light of dawn, channels reported that the missiles had been destroyed before reaching their targets. However, the alarm continued. A few hours after some sleep, the situation at noon was this: “Israel is being persuaded by the USA not to retaliate.”

The world held its breath, wondering if the expected war had broken out, while successive statements showed that the public was skillfully and consciously being distracted.

The Israel-Iran tension began on April 1st. The Iranian consulate in Damascus was hit, killing 13 people, including 7 Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Syria and Iran blamed Israel for the attack. Israel neither confirmed nor denied it. Israeli sources claimed that the targeted site was not the consulate but a Revolutionary Guard headquarters. Whether this is a mitigating factor is another issue.

It’s forgotten: On January 20th as well, an attack near Damascus killed 5 high-ranking Iranians, including Revolutionary Guards and intelligence officers. Iran had also blamed Israel for this.

The April 1st attack intensified the anger and made retaliation inevitable. Ultimately, on Saturday, Iran launched over 300 missiles of three different types from its territory. This was recorded as the first direct attack from Iranian to Israeli territory. Except for a few, none of the missiles crossed into Israeli borders. Missile defenses from the USA and UK, primarily, as well as France, Jordan, and even Saudi Arabia, destroyed the missiles before they reached their targets.

Iran had fired ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs. Each required different interception systems. Israel alone neither had the capability nor the means to handle this. The cost alone was over 1 billion dollars, according to Al Jazeera.

These are the known facts. There are also unknowns:

Why didn’t Iran continue the missile attack and why did it opt for low-profile missiles instead of more effective ones? Fortunately, they didn’t leave the world in suspense. The Iranian Foreign Minister said they had informed neighboring countries 72 hours in advance. Tehran announced, “The operation was successfully completed and achieved its objectives.” The US Secretary of State confirmed this. They knew the reaction would be within certain limits, an informal diplomatic bridge had been established between Iran and the USA.

So, Iran planned a “non-damaging” attack to keep its promise to its people and to calm its public opinion. They had announced this to friends and foes three days in advance. The world was shown a “demo of a third world war.” While the USA was trying to persuade Israel not to respond, they actually knew what was happening and had tacitly permitted Iran’s show of force.

The Iranian leadership needed this to keep its tail up in domestic politics, and it achieved its goal. Once again, it was clear that without the USA and (primarily) its allies, Israel is nothing. There’s no doubt that the Iranian missiles were a lifeline for Netanyahu, who was trapped in the Gaza massacre.

Isn’t there an aspect concerning Turkey?

Of course, there is: The radar base in Kürecik serves as an early warning radar against missile attacks towards Israel and detected the Iranian missiles and warned the necessary places in time. On Saturday night, the Communications Directorate confirmed this by stating, “Information sharing with countries that are not NATO allies, like Israel, is not possible.” They think everyone else is as clueless as they are. Sharing the information with the USA is sufficient.

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