Levent Kenez*
There were indirect blows, but he hadn’t engaged much by addressing Ekrem İmamoğlu directly for a long time. He didn’t want to give the impression that the election was between himself and İmamoğlu. Not hitting too hard and not making him equal was also part of his strategy. But he couldn’t bring İmamoğlu, who had become famous in 2019 as ‘the man who defeated Erdoğan twice,’ down to the level of his counterpart, Murat.
In the suburban train opening held in Istanbul yesterday, İmamoğlu’s team couldn’t have forced those words on Erdoğan even if they paid. Let’s not speak too soon; when money gets involved, you never know what they’ll do!
First of all, the invitation crisis before the opening was a spectacle. A party boasting about the mayor of the city not being invited to the opening of a suburban train line in Istanbul! First, İmamoğlu announced that he was ‘invited and would attend’ the opening. Then Murat Kurum said, “I talked to the Minister, they didn’t invite you!” If İmamoğlu had attended that program, the seat they would have put him in and this teenage quarrel would have peaked!
Erdoğan’s admission that they ‘created difficulties for İmamoğlu for 5 years,’ aside, his continued threats to the voters wherever he goes in Istanbul show great confidence. In a provincial city, perhaps the arrogance of “No vote, no service!” might have some effect, but it doesn’t have much resonance in Istanbul.
He’s insulting the voters! For İmamoğlu to be re-elected, he needs to get votes from the HDP and İYİ Party voters who supported him in the last term. It’s more likely that disproportionate attacks on İmamoğlu will lead these voters, who are already inclined towards opposition, to vote for the current mayor instead of their own candidate. After all, these voters are opposition. It’s not hard to imagine that the possibility of making Erdogan happy seriously disturbs them.
The statement, “Now this person somehow got into this position due to a mistake,” is also very funny. İmamoğlu won two elections, and everyone knows how unjustly the first one was canceled. So, there’s more than just an insult to opposition voters than saying, “You made a mistake!” This is a rhetoric that will backfire…
İmamoğlu was a relatively unknown candidate in 2019. His ‘initial recognition rate’ was announced as 16 percent before the 2019 elections. The public got to know him during the election process. He was up against a former prime minister and the Speaker of the Parliament, Binali Yıldırım, who left his post. If there had been a strong candidate who could get along well with Ankara, Yıldırım more than met that criteria. Now, when he is elected, there is no such weight as Kurum, who will do Erdogan’s ‘deliveries’.
Of course, Erdoğan wants Kurum to defeat İmamoğlu and deflate his ego. If İmamoğlu, despite the dissolution of the Nation Alliance, wins Istanbul, he will automatically become a presidential candidate as a leader who has defeated Erdoğan for the third time, without any debate.
Erdoğan has much more serious problems! In such a situation, he may want to show the stick of law early and forget about him before the elections. Look at Selahattin Demirtaş. If his wife hadn’t been a candidate, he wouldn’t have been on the agenda recently. But somehow I believe that Erdoğan has more serious issues in his mind than Istanbul, such as the economy and integrating Bilal into the system.
He talks about inflation in the squares, something he hasn’t done before. Aside from the inconsistency of having no hand in what he has caused, there are things he doesn’t mention about how inflation has become a headache for the world.
Inflation has increased everywhere in the world after the pandemic and Russia’s occupation of Ukraine. But no developed country has seen inflation rise as much as Turkey. Turkey has witnessed more price increases than Ukraine and Russia at war. There is no explanation for this other than bad management. Even if we assume that the official figures are true, Turkey is currently the 5th country in the world with the highest inflation according to controversial TÜİK data. It is by far the first in Europe. Even if we assume that the official figures are true, there is a deep gap between Turkey with 65 percent and Romania, which is in second place with 7 percent.
Bitter medicine after the election Erdoğan will implement radical measures and bitter medicine that he needs to take after the local elections since there won’t be a ballot box for a long time. Just before the elections, he will apply election economy again and give everyone a piece of candy.
Contrary to what some may think, he doesn’t have any problem entering elections. The Supreme Electoral Council made a major scandal by confirming that this term is his second term in the May elections. When the Parliament decides on elections, it is considered that the second term has not been completed.
He planned to change the 50+1 condition, which is pleasing to his base and the nationalist segment, with a constitutional amendment that includes articles they like, but he had to step back in the face of Bahçeli’s blackmail.
Considering that his health situation is unpredictable and his family’s pressure of “plan this job while you’re still alive!” Bilal, who has been placed among the ministers on trips, may think that it’s time to be integrated into the management.
He may even find it more convenient to present an image to the outside world, saying, “How is this dictator when he loses Istanbul in two elections!” if he loses Istanbul.
*Levent Kenez is a journalist, writer and a political commentator based in Sweden.
