Ahmet Karabay
The sole objective of AK Party leader and President Tayyip Erdoğan is to return to his current position once more. He is attempting to achieve this through the “new Constitution,” which he keeps in focus as if it were Turkey’s top priority. Meanwhile, there have been striking developments in the succession race between Bilal Erdoğan, Berat Albayrak, and Selçuk Bayraktar.
When a system lacks tradition, outcomes are determined by power struggles and intrigue. Democratic traditions have been left behind in Turkey, and Beştepe Palace has yet to establish any tradition. In monarchies, there is tradition. Even if unwritten, the process of succession is clear.
In the United Kingdom, from 1952 to 2022, during the 70-year reign of Queen Elizabeth II (Elizabeth Alexandra Mary Windsor), it was known who would succeed her, even while she was alive. It was no secret that Charles Philip would become King Charles III.
In hybrid countries like Turkey, where it is unclear whether the system is democratic or monarchical, the situation is quite different. Since it appears to be a democracy, its functioning must conform to this framework. Tayyip Erdoğan is not a king, but he resides in Beştepe Palace. In democratic countries, even when heads of state or government work from a palace, their residence is usually elsewhere. Or, if they do reside in a palace, they are referred to as “temporary tenants” or “temporary guests” of the palace.
Since the palace (even if called the Beştepe Complex) started with Erdoğan in the republican era, there is no tradition. For this reason, Erdoğan believes he must decide who will succeed him in the party and therefore in the palace.
However, don’t forget that the succession race is not the same as the presidential race. Just as Queen Elizabeth II unexpectedly reigned for a long time, leading Charles to become king only at age 73, a similar situation could occur in Turkey. As long as Erdoğan is alive, no family member will take his place.
It’s important to remember that if Erdoğan cannot succeed in drafting a new constitution, he can rely on the current constitution’s provisions. If Parliament, by a 3/5 majority of its members, decides to call early elections, Erdoğan can run again. This requires the signatures of 360 MPs. The ruling People’s Alliance currently has around 320 MPs. The CHP, under Özgür Özel’s leadership, has signaled its willingness to fill the 40-vote gap.
What’s the Status of the Succession Race?
Erdoğan’s bid for re-election is a separate matter.
Today, we’ll look at the succession race within the palace. Who will take Erdoğan’s place? Just as the phrase “mother of all wars” was once used, the question of who will succeed Erdoğan is the “mother of all questions.”
Will it be the older son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, the younger son-in-law, Selçuk Bayraktar, or the youngest son, Bilal Erdoğan? Fortunately, no one has entered the eldest son, Burak Erdoğan, into the race, so the competition is between these three.
People say Berat Albayrak is out of the running because of how badly he handled the economy. But with his brother Serhat Albayrak still at the helm of the Sabah-ATV media group, don’t assume Berat has been completely disqualified.
As of today, Berat seems to have fallen behind in the succession race, though this might hold true only for now.
Bilal Has Gained Momentum in Recent Weeks
President Erdoğan is keen on establishing his own palace tradition. Even though he may have a preferred successor in mind, he is trying to create a competition to determine the heir.
Although Bilal Erdoğan’s celebration after a goal at the European Cup match in July, which he watched with his parents, sparked controversy, it’s notable that he has gained momentum in recent weeks.
Bilal’s rise began with the launch of TÜGVA’s summer school, where he serves as a member of the High Advisory Council. He attended the openings of the school in both Istanbul and Gaziantep, giving speeches in both places as an educator and a community leader.
During his speeches, Bilal Erdoğan said that the United Nations and the European Union cannot solve existing problems and provided his own formula for peace:
“We will work for peace, so that oppression ends and people live in tranquility. With the consciousness gained in youth, we will, God willing, create a bright tomorrow.”
This week, we saw Bilal Erdoğan give a speech in Kazakh at the opening of the 2024 World Nomad Games in Kazakhstan.
Bilal was accompanied by the Minister of Youth and Sports, Osman Aşkın Bak, the Minister of Justice, Yılmaz Tunç, the Minister of National Defense, Yaşar Güler, as well as several MPs and officials. Although Turkey participated with only 10 athletes, a group three or four times the size of the competing delegation accompanied them.
Bilal Erdoğan’s earlier trip to Astana on March 21, where he opened the countdown clock for the games alongside the Speaker of the Kazakh Parliament, Yerlan Koshanov, and signed an agreement, was covered by TRT News.
This Time, He’s Trying to Stay in the Spotlight with Controversy
Bilal Erdoğan recently made headlines at an event in Kartepe, Kocaeli, where he addressed the issue of refugees, criticized the media, and took aim at journalist Fatih Altaylı. Bilal claimed the country’s main problems stemmed from the media, using insulting language while criticizing Altaylı:
“This immoral man called Fatih Altaylı used to lick the boots of the military. He did whatever they commanded. Now he serves someone else, but he still walks around as a journalist. Today, Turkey is freer than ever.”
Bilal also didn’t forget to mention that he is an economist. In the Erdoğan family, Tayyip is an economist, Berat is an economist, and Bilal is an economist. Despite so many economists in one family, the country still struggles economically.
Bilal Erdoğan’s frequent appearances in public likely stem from his father pushing him to “prove himself.” It’s unlikely he would act without his father’s knowledge and approval. If he were doing this on his own, it would be an even bigger deal than the first scenario.
Selçuk Bayraktar’s Efforts to Say “I’m Here Too”
With Bilal Erdoğan appearing so frequently in the media, the younger son-in-law, Selçuk Bayraktar, is seizing the opportunity. He’s trying to break through by staying under the umbrella of Teknofest. At the Teknofest rocket competition, he noted the presence of confident young people who said, “I can do it!” and expressed satisfaction that his heart is now at ease.
The fierce succession race for who will lead the AK Party after Erdoğan continues. Remember when names like Süleyman Soylu, Hulusi Akar, and Hakan Fidan were mentioned? None of them are in the running anymore.
As of today, Berat is out, Bilal is in the lead, and Selçuk is trying hard to catch up.
