According to the latest poll from SONAR Research, the gap between the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) is growing. Columnist Aytunç Erkin of Sözcü shared the findings, revealing that after accounting for undecided voters, CHP now leads AKP by 6.4 points. The poll shows 34.7% of respondents would vote for CHP if a general election were held today, while AKP’s support has fallen to 28.3%.
Erkin noted that he had obtained a “SONAR VIP” poll conducted by Hakan Bayrakçı for his private subscribers. The poll, conducted in July with 3,027 participants across 26 provinces, asked, “If a general election were held today, which political party would you vote for?” Before undecided voters were accounted for, the results were: CHP 23.1%, AKP 18.9%, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) 6.9%, Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) 6.7%, IYI Party 3.7%, Victory Party 3.5%, Re-Welfare Party 3.2%, and others 0.8%. A significant 33.2% of respondents did not express a preference (15.1% undecided, 3.1% invalid vote, 11.9% would not vote, and 3.1% had no opinion).
SONAR noted that while the percentage of those not expressing a preference decreased by 4 points compared to June, it remains high by historical standards. The organization suggests that more accurate insights will emerge when the combined percentage of undecided and non-committal voters falls below 27%.
After proportionally distributing the undecided votes, the results are as follows: CHP 34.7%, AKP 28.3%, MHP 10.4%, DEVA 10.1%, IYI Party 5.5%, Victory Party 5.1%, Re-Welfare Party 4.8%, and others 1.1%.
SONAR highlighted that for the first time since 1977, CHP leads in general election polling. While AKP’s 22-year tenure in power is a significant factor, the country’s economic troubles and CHP’s new, more moderate approach have also played a role in this shift.
The June-to-July comparison in SONAR’s polling is particularly revealing. The poll compared responses from 3,271 people over these two months to the same question about voting preferences. In June, CHP garnered 32.5% support, which increased to 34.7% in July. Meanwhile, AKP’s support dropped from 33% in June to 28.3% in July. Notably, two smaller parties also saw gains: the Victory Party increased its share from 4.1% in June to 5.1% in July, and the Re-Welfare Party rose from 4.3% to 4.8%.
