The military activity on July 15, 2016, was labeled by Erdoğan’s regime as a coup attempt orchestrated by sympathizers of the Gülen Movement. However, this claim has limited credibility outside Turkey. Numerous journalists and foreign intelligence experts argue that this was a false flag operation staged by Erdoğan himself. Several statements help clarify this perspective:
- Adam Lusher, a writer for The Independent, noted in an analysis that “conspiracy theorists claim this attempt was orchestrated by Erdoğan.” He added that social media users suggested Erdoğan might use the event in a way similar to Hitler’s exploitation of the Reichstag Fire to suppress opposition.
- Andrew Finkel from The Guardian wrote, “Many might claim that Turkey is already experiencing the slow-motion aftermath of a coup not staged by the military but by Erdoğan himself.”
- Johannes Hahn, then European Commissioner for Budget and Administration, pointed out that “Erdoğan’s government seems to have prepared lists of people to be arrested before the uprising,” hinting at a premeditated operation by the regime.
- Former CIA Director and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in his book Never Give an Inch, referred to the events of July 15, 2016, as a “purported coup.”
- German intelligence expert Erich Schmidt-Eenboom cited CIA and BND reports, claiming, “According to CIA and BND intelligence, Erdoğan was behind the failed coup. These agencies, with access to highly classified communications, concluded that the coup was staged.” Similarly, a European Union intelligence report, detailed in The Times, described the coup as merely “a catalyst for pre-planned crackdowns,” emphasizing that the mass arrests following the coup attempt were prearranged.
Exiled journalists sympathetic to the Gülen Movement have also dismantled Erdoğan’s narrative, exposing propaganda related to the deaths of 251 citizens. These developments mark significant victories for victims of the regime. However, the most notable blow came from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), a respected international tribunal, which challenged Erdoğan’s narrative. The contributions of exiled researchers, journalists, and human rights defenders in establishing a factual discourse have been pivotal.
How Did the Process Unfold? What Was the Scope of the Ruling?
Military personnel falsely accused in connection with July 15 filed two types of applications to the ECHR:
- Complaints about their arrest on July 16, 2016, without reasonable suspicion.
- Appeals against life sentences deemed unjust.
Due to its heavy workload, the ECHR only recently began reviewing these cases. In a significant ruling, it found Turkey guilty of violations in favor of 499 applicants. The court stated, “There is no reference in the case files to any concrete or specific facts that could lead to reasonable suspicion against the applicants,” a particularly damning statement for the Turkish government.
Among the applicants were three military officers who received life sentences in what was known as the General Staff Headquarters Case. One of them, a colonel, was sentenced 11 times to life imprisonment, accused by Turkish courts of organizing activities within the headquarters and being responsible for deaths during the coup attempt. The ECHR, however, ruled that the evidence did not even justify his arrest.
What’s Next?
The three officers have now been acknowledged as victims of wrongful imprisonment and are entitled to compensation. The ECHR will next examine whether the life sentences imposed on them were fair. If no new evidence is presented by Turkish courts, the sentences are likely to be overturned. Following an ECHR annulment ruling, Turkish law mandates a retrial, with proceedings conducted without detention. As a signatory to the European Convention on Human Rights, Turkey must comply with this framework.
Should the Turkish government continue to resist these rulings, it faces potential economic repercussions. Furthermore, judges defying these decisions could face charges for unlawfully depriving individuals of their freedom.
In the coming 5-6 years, we may witness more ECHR rulings on July 15 cases. These decisions represent significant victories not only for individual victims but also for a social group that has endured defamatory campaigns linked to the events of July 15.
