M. AHMET KARABAY
During the 23-year rule of Erdogan, Turkey has faced several turning points. While the ruling party emerged stronger from some of these crises, it is currently in a rather difficult situation. At this point, Erdogan has two options: either follow in the footsteps of his “friend” Putin or start preparing the groundwork for his departure…
The AK Party has faced several crises of legitimacy during its time in power. Before moving forward, let’s briefly recall them.
First: The 367 Crisis and the April 27 e-Memorandum. The government managed to overcome this challenge with a strong team of advisors. The statement read by Government Spokesperson Cemil Çiçek the next day in front of the cameras was a crucial step in dismantling the so-called “military tutelage.”
Second: The December 17-25, 2013 bribery and corruption operations put the government in a difficult position, but it managed to survive through unlawful means and sheer force. In fact, “survive” might be an understatement. Even though it was branded as “thieves,” the public rewarded the ruling party.
Third: In the June 7, 2015 elections, the AK Party was voted out of power. However, it was rescued by MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, who extended a lifeline on election night. The climate of fear created by certain forces that turned the country into a battlefield ensured that voters, much like Stalin’s chicken, clung to the ruling party.
During the July 15 coup attempt, Erdoğan did not experience a legitimacy crisis. The atmosphere he created allowed him to consolidate power and lay the groundwork for his next move. The 2017 Presidential System referendum, in which 2.5 million unsealed votes were counted as valid, did not turn into a legitimacy crisis due to the incompetence of the opposition.
Fourth: The AK Party is now facing the most serious legitimacy crisis in its history, centered around the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. This crisis differs significantly from the previous ones: since the March 31, 2024 local elections, the AK Party has lost its status as the country’s leading party to the Republican People’s Party (CHP).
Until now, the ruling party justified its rule through the majority dictatorship. However, after the latest elections, it has lost its sole basis for legitimacy: the ballot box.
STUDENTS BROUGHT DOWN THE WALLS OF POWER
The annulment of Ekrem İmamoğlu’s diploma, followed by his arrest and detention, triggered a massive public outcry. While Istanbul University revoked İmamoğlu’s diploma, its own students lifted the veil of fear that had fallen over society.
Despite Istanbul Governor Davut Gül’s declaration of a five-day ban on protests and marches, students from Istanbul University left their campus and marched forward. When they broke through the police barricades, everything in Turkey began to change.
That day, the students didn’t just tear down a police barrier—they shattered the wall of fear holding back society. When hundreds of thousands of people gathered in front of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality in Saraçhane for seven days, defying all of Erdoğan’s governor’s restrictions, it was all thanks to the students who broke that initial barrier.
Until now, opposition parties had been trying to mobilize society. However, the recent student-led protests have forced politicians to follow their lead. Millions took to the streets across Turkey—not necessarily as CHP supporters, but as opponents of Erdoğan.
ERDOĞAN CONTRADICTS HIS PARTY OFFICIALS AND JUSTICE MINISTER
President Erdoğan, who failed to provoke a major security incident at the Saraçhane protests, attempted to criminalize the movement as he did during the Gezi Park Protests. Back then, the government relied on the Kabataş Lie.
The fabricated story by Osman Develioğlu’s daughter-in-law, Zehra Develioğlu, claimed that “a group of men, bare-chested, wearing leather pants and gloves, urinated on me and caused me to lose my baby.” Despite claims that footage of the incident existed, no such evidence ever surfaced. Even journalists who initially vouched for its authenticity later admitted they had lied.
Now, Erdoğan has introduced a new false claim—what will be remembered as the “Saraçhane Lie.” He alleged that protesters had damaged the Şehzadebaşı Mosque tombstones. However, CHP leader Özgür Özel, recognizing that religion is often the most effective political tool in Turkey, acted swiftly to prevent this lie from spreading.
Meanwhile, Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç and AK Party officials repeatedly insist that “Turkey is a state governed by the rule of law. The judiciary is independent.” However, Erdoğan himself contradicts this claim. While Minister Tunç asserts that “the judiciary is independent,” Erdoğan has openly declared that “the biggest move is yet to come” and vowed to take action through the judiciary. In a recent AK Party Group Meeting, he escalated this rhetoric further, stating, “We will pursue this through our judiciary.”
IF CHP DOES NOT FALL FOR THE ‘NORMALIZATION’ TRAP…
Özgür Özel made a mistake by buying into Erdoğan’s “normalization” tactics, which diluted CHP’s March 31 victory. However, if he does not allow the recent wave of protests sparked by İmamoğlu’s arrest to be derailed or subdued, he will put Erdoğan in an even tighter corner.
If CHP continues to apply full-court pressure in a strategic way, Erdoğan will be forced to choose between two options:
- Follow a path similar to Putin’s, using extreme measures to maintain power.
- Find a way to retreat, sacrificing others while securing his own exit strategy.
