Ahmet Karabay
The world, which underwent its fastest transformation process since World War II in the second half of the 1980s, has now entered another significant period of change for the first time since then. The election of Trump in the U.S. and Merz emerging as the chancellor candidate in Germany on February 24 are accelerating this process even further. Unless the world is dragged into a global war, the country that will suffer the greatest loss from this transformation might not be the one expected—it seems to be the U.S.
Elected as the 46th president in November 2020, Joe Biden spent his entire term focused solely on maintaining the status quo. When it became apparent that he was not adequately protecting his country’s interests against the rising “threat” of China from the East, he handed over the presidency to the eccentric blonde businessman who had previously passed him the baton—Donald Trump. From the moment Trump was elected, he acted as though he had already taken over the presidency. Testing the limits of the system in every possible way, Trump officially took office on January 20 and immediately began implementing his agenda.
He picked fights with Canada, the U.S.’s closest trade partner to the north, and Mexico, its southern neighbor. Not stopping there, he also created tension with Denmark over Greenland. While engaging in unprecedented disputes with allies, Trump started flirting with Russia, a country traditionally considered an absolute adversary of the U.S. Last week, during the Ukraine peace talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the U.S. switched sides and aligned with Russia. Trump dictated the stance of the U.S. delegation from across the ocean with his statements.
Using language even Russian leader Putin had hesitated to employ, Trump blamed Ukraine and its leader, Zelensky. The supposed peace talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine revealed that the U.S. was attempting to hand over Ukraine to Russia on a silver platter in exchange for a certain price.
THE GERMAN ELECTIONS SEEM SET TO CHANGE MANY THINGS
The storm created by Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president on November 6, 2024, not only led to the downfall of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau but also removed German Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz from office.
Both leaders believed that their nations should decide on the new political landscape and opted to call for elections. In the elections held on February 24, the German people dealt a crushing defeat to Scholz and his party. As in previous elections, a coalition government emerged, paving the way for Friedrich Merz—Angela Merkel’s successor in the CDU—to form the government.
The leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz, is determined to bring a new political face to Germany and Europe, breaking away from his predecessor Scholz’s policy of maintaining the status quo. Expressing his desire to form a government quickly, Merz announced his intention to present his cabinet by Easter (April 20).
During the traditional post-election leaders’ debate in Germany, Merz outlined crucial goals for his country and the European Union. He stated, “My top priority is to strengthen Europe and achieve true independence from the U.S.” The fact that such a phrase—“We will gain independence from the U.S.”—was uttered in Germany would have seemed impossible just three months ago.
These words indicate that Germany is not merely expressing a desire to return to the global stage—it is actively preparing to do so. In fact, Merz’s statement can be interpreted as a rebellion against Trump’s dismissive attitude toward Europe’s fear of Russia and his support for Putin.
Before the elections, Merz was vocal about Europe’s continued support for Ukraine. As Trump hinted at surrendering Ukraine to Russia, Merz made his stance clear on November 12, 2024: “When I take office, I will issue an ultimatum to Putin to end the war immediately. If he refuses, I will provide Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles.”
There is an old saying known to those familiar with modern history:
“When the Russians rise, the Germans fall.
When the Germans rise, the Russians fall.”
During the pandemic, Putin attempted to impose a PCR test on the German Chancellor before allowing entry into the Kremlin. Scholz refused, leading to the infamous five-meter-long table photo session for journalists.
Merz, who expects to take office as Chancellor in less than two months, will first focus on implementing economic reforms to lift Germany out of the recession threshold. At the same time, he will work to keep the European Union strong against Russia while developing a stance against the U.S., essentially saying, “We can manage without you.”
Although Germany is the driving force of Europe, Merz cannot achieve this transformation alone. He needs to bring France and the UK on board. If he succeeds in doing so, an arms race in Europe will be inevitable—something that could become Trump’s worst nightmare.
While the media and political circles are still talking about the Trump storm, I had already predicted this on January 9, 2025, in an article titled “Sharp” Trump Could Be the One to Lead the U.S. to Collapse—Don’t Be Surprised! In that piece, I explained how Trump’s aggressive stance would fuel global anti-American sentiment and potentially mark the end of the country’s world leadership.
As CDU leader, Merz may oppose the U.S.’s policy of extracting valuable resources while handing over Ukraine to Russia, instead pushing for the continuation of the war. This could drive France, the UK, and the entire European Union further away from the U.S.
With a few exceptions, most European nations perceive the ceding of Ukrainian territory to Russia as a direct threat to their security.
If fear of Russia drives European countries to ramp up their military capabilities, the U.S. will find itself increasingly isolated and, more importantly, unable to counter China effectively. Should EU nations decide to collaborate with China—whom the U.S. has attempted to portray as a global menace—Trump’s America may find itself completely alone.
A U.S. THAT IS ENEMY TO NATO
Former NATO Secretary General Rasmussen, writing for The Economist, stated, “Europe must now face the reality of a U.S. president who is openly hostile to NATO.”
As Rasmussen pointed out, Europe faces a dual threat: Russia’s aggression, which endangers its very existence, and an American president who is openly antagonistic toward NATO.
Europe must either find a way forward or face disintegration. Since disintegration is not an option, they have no choice but to find a path to survival.
