AHMET KARABAY
If you exclude the first 20 and the last 10 years of the 20th century, the remaining 70 years were dominated by the Soviet Union. However, this grand Soviet empire collapsed within just five years. There are significant similarities between the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the decline of U.S. global leadership. Let’s take a look at them.
After the October Revolution of 1917, the foundations of a socialist empire were laid in Russia. With its expansion, it gained a prestigious title in 1922: the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). Covering 22.5 million square kilometers, it occupied one-sixth of the world’s land area. In terms of economically valuable underground resources, it possessed about 40% of the world’s reserves.
Despite reaching such an enormous size, the USSR suffered from inefficiency and an inability to produce high-quality goods. By the 1980s, this rigid structure became increasingly evident. Sustaining the Cold War between East and West, which had begun after World War II, became more challenging.
In 1985, when Mikhail Gorbachev took over as the leader of the Communist Party and the country, he introduced a comprehensive reform package to revive the stagnant economy and address political deadlocks. These reforms had two fundamental pillars: “glasnost” and “perestroika.”
According to Gorbachev, the country needed “perestroika” (restructuring), and the tool to achieve this was “glasnost” (openness). However, the situation in the USSR had reached a point where these steps did not fix the system but instead undermined the foundations of the authoritarian regime.
Gorbachev signed a disarmament agreement with U.S. President Ronald Reagan, aiming to end the Cold War that had persisted since 1945. The relaxation of the regime was met with enthusiasm by various nationalities and groups within the Soviet Union, ultimately leading to its collapse.
THE END OF THE U.S. GLOBAL EMPIRE
Since the 2000s, the U.S. economy has not declined; rather, it has continued on a path of relatively stable growth. By the end of 2023, it reached a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $28 trillion, roughly a quarter of the global economy.
Meanwhile, China, which has become the world’s manufacturing hub, has rapidly closed the gap, reaching a $20 trillion economy. Even more striking is the prediction that China will surpass the U.S. economy by the 2030s at the latest.
The U.S.’s main concern and anxiety stem from the possibility that China will not only overtake it economically but also seize the role of global policeman.
Just as Gorbachev’s attempt to save the Soviet Union ended up accelerating its collapse, Donald Trump’s aggressive and confrontational approach to world affairs is undermining the pillars of U.S. global power.
TRUMP MAY LEAVE, BUT TRUMPISM REMAINS AS AN IDEOLOGY
Donald Trump is seen by some as reckless, by others as clueless, and by some even as a Russian agent. These debates are a separate issue. However, 95% of the world’s population believes that the U.S. is a burden on the world, whereas Trump and his supporters argue that the world is a burden on the U.S.
One of the primary reasons for this perspective is NATO contributions. Since the U.S. covers nearly 70% of NATO’s military expenses alone, Trump and his followers feel entitled to act assertively.
Even though Trump has been pushed out of the system, there is still a significant grassroots movement that supports Trumpism. This makes it inevitable that new leaders will emerge to carry on his ideology.
Just as Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, marked a turning point in the Middle East, Trump’s alignment with Russia in the Ukraine conflict and his blaming of Ukraine will be a turning point for Europe.
A new era is beginning in which the law of the jungle prevails, where the strong attempt to crush the weak. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and NATO Commander Admiral Rob Bauer warned member states just four or five months ago to “prepare for war” without explicitly naming Russia. While their concerns about war may not have diminished, their designated adversary may have shifted.
We are living in a period where the risk of global war is increasing, and at the same time, NATO is crumbling—ironically, due to the approach of the U.S. President himself.
TRUMP HAS DYNAMITED THE CORE VALUES THAT MADE AMERICA GREAT
He has alienated friends and allies while embracing supposed enemies like Putin and Russia.
Looking at the overall picture, the outlook for the U.S. is far from promising:
- Canada to the north,
- Mexico to the south,
- European allies across the Atlantic,
- South Korea, Japan, and even Taiwan in the Pacific,
- And most Arab nations in the Middle East, except for Israel.
All of these regions and countries are questioning the reliability and friendship of the U.S. due to Trump’s policies in his potential second term.
Shifts in global power dynamics often bring about global crises and wars. Instead of having a government capable of keeping the country stable in such turbulent times, the U.S. has an administration eager to dive headfirst into every possible conflict.
After Trump’s suggestion that Ukraine should be handed over to Russia, European Union countries have firmly declared their support for Zelensky. In response, Turkey, rather than sending President Erdoğan, sent Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to the London leaders’ summit. Though delayed, Turkey eventually aligned itself with the EU in support of Ukraine.
Regardless of whether Ankara’s stance is right or wrong, one thing is clear: this position increases the likelihood of a direct clash between Ankara and Washington in the near future.
Let’s see what kind of chaos the U.S. will bring upon the world as it transitions out of its global leadership role.
