M. Ahmet Karabay
In the United States, the period between Donald Trump’s election as president on November 5 and his inauguration on January 20, 2025, holds different implications for Washington. However, in Turkey and the Middle East, it’s perceived as a “transitional period.” During transitional periods, waters are muddy, and there are many who try to fish in murky waters.
After World War II, a bipolar world emerged, led by the United States and Russia. During this era, the two sides challenged each other, with most other countries aligning themselves largely behind one of these superpowers.
In the period known as the “Cold War,” widespread war did not break out beyond regional conflicts. This phase continued until the early 1990s with the collapse of the Soviet Union, ushering in a unipolar world under the dominance of the United States.
As China approached surpassing the U.S. economically, President Xi Jinping recently positioned his country not only as an economic powerhouse but also as a political and military leader, leading to significant shifts in the world order.
In my article, “The World is Gathering War Clouds…” dated January 16, 2024, I pointed out that the world may be entering a spring reminiscent of 1914, when the spark of World War I was ignited, while also mentioning potential tensions in various parts of the globe.
There is currently intense activity among those who believe that the period until Joe Biden hands over power to Trump will turn into a governance vacuum in the U.S. Putting other centers aside, we will focus on what is happening in Ankara, particularly at Beştepe Presidential Complex.
ERDOĞAN ANNOUNCES NEW REGIONAL POLICY IN ÇANKAYA
For a long time, the AK Party has pursued policies reflecting a “Neo-Ottomanist” vision, sometimes hiding this approach and at other times hinting at it. Now, Beştepe is making efforts to make the most of the perceived vacuum until January 20.
It seems Erdoğan has realized that his previous approach of opposing Atatürk did not yield the desired results, and he is likely to add Atatürkism to his Islamist and nationalist credentials. From now on, Turkey’s military operations across the region will be presented not with a Neo-Ottomanist facade but with an Atatürkist one. The first sign of this approach was at the opening of the Atatürk Museum Villa in Çankaya, where Erdoğan interacted with historian Murat Bardakçı, who seemed to be a guest of honor, presenting a photograph of Atatürk in Libya.
In his display of support for Atatürk, Erdoğan’s body language and tone implied a sense of dismissal. This is another topic and one we won’t delve into further.
Mustafa Kemal Bey and Enver Bey (Paşa) were sent to Tripoli (Libya), then occupied by Italy, as part of efforts to reclaim the region. However, Erdoğan equates this with deploying troops to a now-independent country.
In the Cabinet meeting held at Çankaya Mansion for the first time in nine years, Erdoğan announced that Turkey would initiate new, comprehensive military operations in Syria and Iraq.
Reminding the audience of the ongoing threats from these regions, Erdoğan made his message clear: “In the coming period, we will complete the missing links of the safe zone along our borders. We will sever all connections between terrorist organizations and our country.”
NOT AN ERA OF SOFTENING, BUT A HARDER STANCE
Following the Cabinet meeting, Erdoğan appeared to dismiss MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli’s olive branch to the DEM Party and PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, as well as intensifying his criticism of the CHP over recent rapprochement with DEM Party following trustee appointments.
After observing the local reactions to the trustee appointments, Erdoğan has decided on his stance: “Some prefer to ignore the bloody and dirty hands extending from Qandil to local administrations… These are not elected officials, but unknown individuals appointed by the organization… We cannot allow the extortion mechanisms set up by the terrorist organization using municipal power.”
To Erdoğan, CHP remains a second party, regardless of its election performance. He describes CHP under the leadership of Özgür Özel as “a ship adrift, like a rudderless vessel,” and adds: “The leader of this party speaks patriotically in Ankara, but the next day, you see him in another part of the country, organizing a rogue rally with those who openly threaten Turkey, praise vile terrorist acts, and operate like thugs.”
ESCALATION AND CROSS-BORDER OPERATIONS
It appears that during this “transitional period,” Erdoğan may initiate extensive cross-border operations in Syria and possibly Iraq, and even coordinate with some centers to target areas in Iran.
In this period, he will attack DEM Party openly, claim ownership of Atatürkism, and accuse CHP of mere “poster and wardrobe Atatürkism” while being unaware of the country’s interests. Erdoğan envisions this transition period as a time “where borders are being redrawn, like the post-Cold War era, with blood, bombs, and political assassinations.” He will aim to complete his goals before Trump takes office.
As many are discussing the possibility of a new peace process, I had interpreted the new road map of the People’s Alliance under the headline “The game plan has been exposed; much tougher, much more intense” in my article on October 29.
Erdoğan, who is carrying out all these actions, asks for only one thing in return: “As long as my Lord grants me life and the nation approves, to continue serving Turkey and the Turkish people.”
The only concern is that Turkey, which seeks to expand, does not end up resembling the map drawn by the Russian cartoonist.
