Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has been detained under accusations of terrorism and corruption within the framework of the “Urban Consensus” initiative. İmamoğlu is now being targeted as a “terrorist and leader of a criminal organization” as well…
Questions arise: How did we get here? Who is next? Will Mansur Yavaş also be eliminated in this wave? What about the media—will a trustee be appointed to Halk TV? However, the most critical questions are these: Why did President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan choose such a difficult and exhausting path to eliminate his strongest rival when he could have done so more easily? And how can this move be countered to break the game?
To answer these questions and determine a strategy to defeat Erdoğan, we must first accurately define his position. Despite the clear provision in the Constitution, he ran for a third term and won. Now, he is pushing for a fourth. The only way to send Erdoğan home is to prevent him from running for office.
During his tenure, former CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu dismissed concerns about Erdoğan’s unconstitutional candidacy by saying, “Let him come, we will defeat him at the ballot box!”—a grave mistake. His successor, Özgür Özel, is following the same line of thinking: “Let’s hold elections in November 2025, and let him run.”
Anyone who still believes that Erdoğan will conduct a fair and lawful election is either extremely naive or complicit. This is a man who revoked a diploma from 35 years ago, who annulled elections in Istanbul three times, and who ordered the arrest of a candidate widely expected to defeat him—by surrounding his house! What more does he need to do to wake you up? Do you really believe he won’t engage in electoral fraud or refuse to accept defeat?
Those who, in the initial shock, propose “immediate elections” as a solution fail to see the reality. I believe the real objective of this move—which has also caused the public to lose over 10% of their wealth in a single day—is to force the country into early elections. If Erdoğan cannot convince the current parliament to call early elections, he will be ineligible to run.
The ruling People’s Alliance officially holds 324 seats in parliament. To reach the 360-seat threshold needed for an early election decision, they would have to recruit independent MPs and defectors from other parties—an uphill task. This leaves Erdoğan with two possible paths:
- Gaining the backing of the DEM Party’s 57-seat bloc by offering constitutional concessions.
- Manipulating CHP into supporting an election, only to later rig the results in his favor.
The Kurdish political movement would only support Erdoğan’s early election efforts in exchange for constitutional rights. However, we all know Erdoğan’s ultimate dream is to remain in power for life and turn Turkey into an “Assad-style” regime. What rights could possibly be offered to the Kurds that would make them say “yes” to this? Such a contradiction is as impossible as night and day coexisting.
İmamoğlu’s efforts to form an Urban Consensus with legal political figures have been labeled as “support for PKK and terrorism.” If İmamoğlu is one side of this so-called crime, then the Kurdish political movement is the other. Tomorrow, the same accusations could be directed at Selahattin Demirtaş. After all, İmamoğlu owed his victory in the annulled Istanbul election to Demirtaş’s support. Will the DEM Party fall into this trap?
In Turkey, nothing is impossible! But since Erdoğan sees that as a difficult path, he will try to pressure CHP instead. The public, overwhelmed by economic hardships, may view elections as a solution. The opposition, cornered by political and judicial crackdowns, might opt for a desperate “all or nothing” approach. In my view, this is nothing more than cheese in a mousetrap.
The only way to be rid of Erdoğan is if he cannot run for office. In every other scenario, he will win through electoral fraud. The citizens must endure three more years of hardship and consign this regime to the dustbin of history. A bitter pill to swallow, but the only way forward.
