The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its World Economic Outlook report, which includes economic forecasts for various countries, highlighting that Turkey’s exchange rate could potentially reach 100 Turkish Lira (TL) per US dollar within the next six years.
In the government’s Medium-Term Program (MTP) announced last September, the projected average annual dollar exchange rate was set at 23.88 TL for 2023, 36.78 TL for 2024, 43.94 TL for 2025, and 47.80 TL for 2026.
The IMF’s recent projections indicate a significant increase in Turkey’s gross domestic product (GDP). The GDP is expected to grow from 26.3 trillion TL in 2023 to 127.9 trillion TL by 2029. In dollar terms, Turkey’s GDP is forecasted to increase from 1.108 trillion dollars in 2023 to 1.286 trillion dollars in 2029.
The report also forecasts a steady rise in the dollar/TL exchange rate, predicting it will increase from 23.71 in 2023 to 99.44 by 2029.
On the inflation front, the IMF anticipates high rates continuing well into the next decade, with predictions of 45.02% for 2024 gradually decreasing to 18.60% by 2028 and 2029. In contrast, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) forecasts lower rates, predicting inflation to fall to 9% by 2026. The MTP also suggests more optimistic inflation figures, projecting rates to drop to 8.5% by 2026.
The IMF’s inflation forecasts extend into the 2030s, indicating that Turkey may not see single-digit inflation rates until after 2030.
