The Middle East’s two powerful players, Iran and Israel, have experienced a turbulent relationship throughout history. Once strategic partners, these two countries are now engaged in a fierce struggle for regional dominance.
Israel made its expected move at dawn on Saturday morning. After a prolonged period of preparation, Tel Aviv initiated air and missile strikes on Iran. However, contrary to expectations, these strikes were relatively limited. Israel announced the completion of its operations and explicitly warned Iran against retaliation.
Iranian officials have openly declared that they will retaliate and have previously warned that U.S. allies in the region could also be targeted.
So, what will happen next? This question is on the minds of millions across the region.
The friendship era, which began in the 1950s, coincided with the reign of the Shah in Iran. During this period, Israel played an active role in Iran’s armament program. The joint project codenamed “Flower” was the most concrete example of their defense cooperation.
The 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution changed this relationship from the ground up. The new Iranian regime refused to recognize Israel, severing all diplomatic and trade ties between the two countries.
Since the 1990s, tensions between the two countries have gradually escalated. While Israel views Iran’s nuclear program as a threat to its national security, Iran strongly criticizes Israel’s policies on Palestine.
During this period, a series of events described as a “shadow war” took place between the two countries. Assassinations of scientists involved in Iran’s nuclear program, cyberattacks attributed to Israel, and mutual ship attacks are the most evident examples of this shadow war.
In 2021, an explosion at Iran’s Natanz Nuclear Facility escalated the tension to a new level. While Iran held Israel responsible for the attack, Israel indirectly claimed responsibility. This incident signaled that the conflict between the two countries had come to the forefront.
The April 13 attacks during the Hamas-Israel War took Iran-Israel tensions to their peak. This attack, carried out by Iran using drones and missiles, is recorded as the most serious military conflict between the two countries since 1979.
Western media claim that the U.S. had a moderating influence on Israel and persuaded it not to target nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure. However, the accuracy of these claims is debatable. Israeli sources state that they targeted Iran’s missile production and launch facilities.
Following Iran’s October 1st retaliatory attacks, this anticipated move has further escalated the tension in the region. The embassy attack in Damascus and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran had already brought the tense relations to a breaking point.
If Iran follows through on its threats, the region stands on the brink of disaster. Iran’s latest attack targeted Israel’s military and intelligence facilities. Iran claims that this attack was conducted to test weak points in Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ air defense.
The U.S. deployment of THAAD anti-missile batteries to Israel has also allowed Israel to recognize the gaps in its air defense. Although the U.S. claims it played no role in Israel’s recent attack, it is also known to have increased its military presence in the region.
Experts agree that tensions between the two countries could escalate further. Iran’s defense weaknesses and Israel’s aggressive policies heighten the risk of conflict. However, given the high cost of a direct war for both sides, the shadow war is more likely to continue.
Professor Mohammad Marandi from the University of Tehran states that Iran’s commitment to the liberation of Palestine is stronger than ever. Marandi claims that Iran will retaliate, and the resulting destruction could be unprecedented.
Reports in Western media suggest that the U.S. and certain Gulf states have persuaded Israel to limit its operations. Yet, this raises the question of why these powers have not taken action to stop the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
As tensions rise between Iran and Israel, Turkey’s multi-faceted foreign policy is also being put to the test. The position Ankara takes in this crisis will be decisive not only for regional balance but also for Turkey’s standing on the international stage.
This complex and dangerous situation between Iran and Israel will continue to shape the future of the Middle East. International mediation efforts are crucial for peace and stability in the region. However, it is unlikely that a decades-long enmity will be resolved in the short term.
We are on the brink of a new crisis in the Middle East. If the international community does not take action promptly, the potential consequences of a conflict in the region could deeply affect the entire world.
