Terrible events are unfolding in Iran.
First, protests triggered by the economic crisis have rapidly turned into anti-regime demonstrations. Already a powder keg ready to explode, the Islamic Republic is, for the first time in its history, witnessing protests that are this massive and widespread. Reliable sources report that approximately 3,000 people have been killed in the demonstrations so far, and more than 10,000 have been detained.
The public is setting official buildings on fire; in major cities, squares are hosting hundreds of thousands of protesters demonstrating around the clock. Regime security forces—most notably the Revolutionary Guards—are opening fire on civilians. For nearly ten days, the regime has reportedly shut down the internet and mobile phone networks, and electricity has been cut in certain regions.
Yesterday, it was estimated that more than one million people participated in a demonstration in the capital, Tehran. Photos and videos circulating on social media reveal the humanitarian dimension of the tragedy. Hundreds of lifeless bodies placed in black body bags lie in the streets—an image that is deeply horrifying. Protests continue across all provinces of Iran, growing increasingly widespread and massive.
It is being reported that many generals and senior military commanders have resigned or refused to comply with orders to attack civilians. Iran is one of the countries in the world that most frequently hands down and carries out death sentences. At present, many protesters are being detained through rapid trials and immediately executed. Reports indicate that the distribution of goods and services has collapsed and that chaos dominates the country.
As is well known, since Khomeini’s “Islamic Revolution,” the Iranian regime has placed anti-Americanism and antisemitism at the center of its foreign policy worldview. Iran has implemented this policy on the ground through numerous proxy organizations worldwide. Following the Israel–Gaza conflict, Israel radically dismantled Iran’s regional influence. Subsequently, Iran’s nuclear facilities were bombed. These blows, occurring after years of regime weakening, have increasingly eroded the regime’s control over its own population.
Moreover, rigid dress-code enforcement in recent years had already given rise to significant women-led opposition. Iran’s long-standing harsh policies in this area undermined loyalty to the regime and caused a deep rift—especially among younger generations—between society and the regime’s values. A large portion of the population opposed the regime’s radicalism and began openly challenging the theological totalitarian system.
As a result of its rigid policies, Iran became isolated from the world and, because it refused to compromise on its radicalism, was subjected to severe economic sanctions. This further weakened Iran’s already fragile, energy-export-dependent economy. The 2025 economic crisis caused the Iranian currency to lose significant value. The public’s purchasing power collapsed. In addition, it was widely reported that young Iranians were abandoning Islam—turning toward atheism or other religions—due to the regime’s imposition of a specific Shiite interpretation of Islam.
The burning of many major mosques during the protests can be seen as a reflection of the profound disappointment that the Islamist totalitarian regime has produced within Iranian society. This is a cautionary tableau for the Middle East, where Islamist regimes of various shades exert influence over governance. Islamism—the instrumentalization of Islam for political objectives—is a degenerative and harmful ideology.
From Turkey’s perspective, Iran’s destabilization is a matter too significant to ignore and one that requires urgent preventive strategies.
The foremost threat is a potential refugee crisis. Turkey already hosts around half a million Iranian citizens. Only a small portion of them may be students or economic migrants; the overwhelming majority are secular individuals who decided to leave their country due to discomfort with the Iranian mullah regime.
The overwhelming majority of Iran’s population consists of secular segments who reject the use of religion in political affairs. As an academic who has visited Iran twice, my own observations confirm that oppressive Islamist policies have particularly alienated young people from religion. The “headscarf obligation”—the inverse of Turkey’s former headscarf ban—has made Iranian women the regime’s primary adversaries.
This issue has long been discussed in traditional and social media. Moreover, a foreign and security policy constructed through an Islamist lens has effectively cemented Iran’s international isolation, paving the way for the collapse of its raw-material-export-based economic policies. Despite possessing some of the world’s richest oil and natural gas reserves, Iran—located in a geographically resource-rich region—has been forced into severe poverty. While the mullahs excluded Iran from the international economic system, they filled the resulting void by falling under the influence of the Russia–China axis.
As part of the Eurasian bloc, Iran pursued uranium enrichment programs that violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty under the guise of a meaningless nuclear program. It squandered its scarce financial resources on producing highly enriched uranium while further deepening its isolation. In parallel, it adopted a policy of developing compatible missile delivery systems.
Combined with emotional and hollow rhetoric such as calling for Israel’s eradication and labeling the United States the “Great Satan,” these ideology-saturated and irrational foreign policy choices exacerbated economic problems and understandably intensified public resentment toward the regime.
Turkey will face a serious refugee influx as a result of this crisis. Additionally, following uprisings among Iranian Kurds, a Kurdish regional administration is likely to emerge in Iranian Kurdistan—after Iraq and Syria. This should not be imagined as a one- or two-year timeline; scenarios envisioning Iran’s fragmentation within the next decade—an extremely short period in international relations—are not utopian.
Similarly, in regions with Azerbaijani majorities (Southern Azerbaijan or Iranian Azerbaijan), an autonomous Azerbaijani region or a “Greater Azerbaijan” unified with Azerbaijan may emerge. Turkish Kurdistan will inevitably be affected by these developments. Frankly, it must be emphasized that a significant historical momentum has arisen for the Kurds. For the current Turkish regime, this signals a very serious fault-line rupture.
To this risk assessment must also be added the economic crisis Turkey would face due to disruptions in fossil fuel—particularly natural gas—supplies from Iran.
Finally, it is important to note that Iran constitutes a case study from which lessons must be drawn regarding Islamism in the Middle East. Rigid religious ideologies may mobilize the masses in the short term, but in the medium and long term, they erode the very religious values they exploit in the public consciousness. The rise of atheism, deism, and agnosticism among young people in Turkey can be interpreted through a similar lens. A regime collapse in Iran, followed by political and sociological transformations, will inevitably affect Turkish society.
The strategic blindness and near-treasonous indifference of the Turkish regime—formulating Iran policy without taking any of these factors into account—appear likely to produce consequences that will one day be recorded in history books.
