CUMALİ ONAL*
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made a significant visit to Cairo as the guest of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Erdoğan, moving from the United Arab Emirates with a large delegation, was officially welcomed by Sisi at the airport.
Egypt was the most crucial country in the Arab Bloc, which was formed against Turkey, alongside the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Egypt also developed close relations with Turkey’s regional rivals like Greece and Israel, subjecting Ankara to a policy of ‘precious loneliness’ in the region.
The relations that worsened with the Arab Spring that erupted at the end of 2010 and occasionally experienced cold war winds are now being questioned if they will return to their bright days before the upheavals that shook the Arab world, with this visit.
The visit, happening 12 years later, coinciding with Israel’s ongoing attacks on Gaza since October 7, holds great significance. The two leaders emphasized this issue in their joint press conference, highlighting their commitment to act together to resolve the problem.
In Erdoğan’s visit, besides Gaza, Libya was another significant agenda item highlighted in the leaders’ joint press conference.
Libya played a crucial role in the relations between the two countries, especially hitting rock bottom in 2019. When the Libyan National Army forces, led by General Khalifa Haftar and supported by Egypt, attempted to take control of Tripoli, recognized by the UN, Turkey intervened in the events, forcing Haftar’s forces to retreat. This situation caused a historic low in the relations between the two countries.
The relations between the two countries were in a proverbial hibernation during the Republic period. The mediation of Egypt’s then-President Hosni Mubarak in expelling Öcalan from Syria led to an awakening in relations.
The Free Trade Agreement signed in 2005 was a significant milestone in bilateral relations, leading to a rapid improvement in economic relations, followed by accelerated mutual visits.
In those years, Egypt was Turkey’s gateway to Africa and the Arab world in its soft power strategy. The two countries, exploring opportunities for cooperation in various areas from Sudan to Somalia, Palestine to Yemen, also agreed on laying an Arab Peace Pipeline from Egypt to Turkey.
The improvement in Turkey’s relations with Egypt also had an impact on Gaza, leading to steps towards establishing a Free Trade Zone in the Erez area of Gaza.
However, the uprisings that started in Tunisia on December 18, 2010, and spread to Egypt on January 25, 2011, struck a significant blow to Turkey’s reputation in the Arab world, especially affecting Turkey-Egypt relations.
The primary reason was undoubtedly Turkey, alongside Qatar, starting to support opposition movements in countries where the Muslim Brotherhood was predominant as soon as the uprisings began.
However, the removal of Mohammed Morsi from office by Sisi in 2013 dealt a significant blow to Turkey’s presence in the region and led to unprecedented tension in relations between the two countries. First, Egypt declared Turkey’s ambassador to Cairo, Hüseyin Avni Botsalı, persona non grata, followed by Turkey declaring Egypt’s ambassador to Ankara, Abdurrahman Salaheldin, persona non grata.
President Erdoğan, at different times, targeted the Egyptian administration with harsh words.
Erdoğan, stating they see Morsi’s administration as legitimate, criticized Western countries for not only not opposing Sisi but welcoming him with red carpets.
In another speech, Erdoğan accused Sisi of committing crimes against humanity for being a coup leader and executing some members of the Muslim Brotherhood. Erdoğan even stated he would not sit at the same table with Sisi, not attending a dinner hosted by the UN Secretary-General.
The foundation of Egypt’s arguments against Turkey was Ankara’s close relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt claimed Erdoğan “embraced the terrorist Muslim Brotherhood,” emphasizing the number of journalists and politicians imprisoned in Turkey.
The crisis in the relations between the two countries deepened, especially over the natural gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean. The crisis, peaking in 2019 and 2020, brought together all of Turkey’s rivals in the region under the same roof. Countries like France, Russia, Israel, Greece, and Cyprus tried to isolate Turkey both in the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya.
However, the occasional conflicts of interest among these countries and Turkey stepping back to conduct behind-the-scenes talks primarily with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Israel led to a shift in the wind.
Turkey then started conducting talks with Egypt through intelligence channels. Initially, the two countries held meetings at the deputy foreign minister level in 2021 but did not achieve the desired outcome due to Cairo’s criticism of Turkey’s policy on Libya.
The first serious step towards mending relations was taken when the two leaders shook hands for the first time at the opening ceremonies of the World Cup in Qatar. It had been reported that Erdoğan wanted to meet Sisi but did not receive a positive response.
In September last year, the two leaders met in India at the G20 leaders summit. Last year, by reappointing the ambassadors they had withdrawn earlier, the two countries took a significant step towards getting relations back on track.
Regarding the Gaza issue emphasized during Erdoğan and Sisi’s joint press conference, although Egypt declared its willingness to work together with Turkey, it always made it clear that it did not want to share the main actor role with anyone.
This stance was openly demonstrated by Egypt even before the Arab Spring, expressing discomfort with Turkey’s proactive policy on the Palestine issue in different ways.
Egypt wants Turkey to play a supportive role through Egypt on the Palestine issue, not to be directly involved. Moreover, Erdoğan’s pro-Hamas stance is also a point of discomfort in Cairo.
It is still unknown how a consensus will be reached on the Libya issue. This frozen issue could reignite with the smallest spark, potentially bringing the two countries face to face again.
The Eastern Mediterranean natural gas issue might be the easiest issue for the two countries to resolve. The crisis was primarily centered around Libya before, with Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece collaborating to pressure Turkey over the natural gas issue.
Egypt is especially a significant investment hub for Turkish textile manufacturers. The investment of Turkish companies, around 2 billion dollars, is likely to increase further with the improvement in relations between the two countries.
Egypt also has always had deep historical ties with Syria. It is indicated that Erdoğan might find a more comfortable environment to meet with Bashar Assad after reconciling with Sisi.
*Cumali Onal is a journalist, political commentator and expert on the Middle East.
