Is the new regime in Damascus a cleverly orchestrated trap?

The nearly bloodless collapse of the Assad regime in just 11 days continues to baffle observers and fuel conspiracy theories. In this article, I will present a snapshot of the situation on the ground without delving into conspiracy theories or speculations. What conclusions you draw from it is entirely up to you.

Here’s what has transpired in the last week, with dizzying speed and calm:

• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forces assumed control of Damascus from the former prime minister.
• An interim prime minister was appointed. The new cabinet will work alongside the previous administration for a while, officially taking over in March.
• Turkey was the first country to recognize the HTS administration and raised its flag at the embassy in Damascus.
• The UK, the US, and Russia quickly lined up to recognize HTS as well.
• The new Damascus regime promised democracy, minority rights, and respect for lifestyles. Schools, shops, and banks reopened within days.
• The Euphrates River was set as the new boundary with the Kurdish-controlled northeastern region.
• Israel, seemingly prepared for these developments, established a buffer zone between the Golan Heights and Damascus, destroying all Syrian military infrastructure.

The leader of HTS, who initially went by the alias “Abu Muhammad al-Jolani,” reverted to his real name within days: Ahmad Hussein al-Sharaa.

It’s speculated that his return to his original name, referencing his Golan roots, may have irritated Israel. Whether that’s true or not remains unclear, and at this point, it may not even matter.

Though still listed as a terrorist by both the US and Turkey, this label seems increasingly irrelevant. People now realize how quickly the definition of “terrorist” can change to align with interests. Sometimes, laws are adjusted after the fact.

The first Friday under HTS rule highlighted the dilemma of the new regime. While interim Prime Minister Muhammad al-Bashir delivered a sermon at the Umayyad Mosque, the evening saw fireworks in the streets of Damascus.

Another overlooked event:

HTS forces burned the grave of former President Hafez al-Assad. Toppling the statues of previous leaders is often a hallmark of regime change, but burning a grave speaks volumes about intentions.

On the same day, Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) forces burned the largest library in Manbij.

Turkey’s stance on Syria since 2011 has been crystal clear. It supported the opposition, providing them with weapons and military training. It has expended every effort to dismantle the Kurdish presence in northern Syria, which the Kurds call “Rojava.” The military operations Euphrates Shield (2016), Olive Branch (2018), and Peace Spring (2019) were all aimed at this goal.

While Ankara is adept at sudden policy shifts, a reversal in this regard seems unlikely. Public statements affirm this steadfastness.

When HTS took control of Aleppo, the Turkey-backed SNA swiftly secured the western side of the Euphrates. Buoyed by Israel’s advance from the Golan Heights to Damascus, Turkey launched a similar offensive against the Kurdish administration east of the Euphrates. The reason for US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s sudden visit to Ankara on Thursday evening lies here.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), created with US support, and its military arm, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), are labeled as terrorist organizations by Turkey.

The US, however, sees the SDF as its most effective ally against ISIS. Thousands of people are still held in ISIS camps in the middle of Kurdish territory.

Led by Mazloum Abdi (real name: Ferhat Abdi Şahin), the SDF appears open to cooperating with the new administration in Damascus. The SDF has also disclosed, albeit unilaterally, that they are in contact with Ankara via US mediation.

Washington’s objectives extend beyond fighting ISIS. Control of oil-rich regions like Deir ez-Zor was handed over to HTS, taken from the Kurds.

The SDF has not only retreated from Deir ez-Zor but also abandoned Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo, Tel Rifaat, and Manbij. Now, the Kurds are scrambling to turn these losses into some form of advantage.

Before Blinken’s visit to Ankara, Turkish intelligence chief İbrahim Kalın toured Damascus in HTS leader Ahmad Hussein al-Sharaa’s official vehicle. Sharaa himself was reportedly driving.

Hours after Blinken’s departure, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced the reopening of Turkey’s embassy in Damascus.

These two developments are noteworthy:

1. Turkey has plunged headlong into Syria. İbrahim Kalın took significant risks by getting into Sharaa’s vehicle and trying to influence him with his Arabic fluency.
2. Was this effort effective? We don’t know.

But here’s what we do know:

In a video leaked the same day, HTS leader Sharaa promised to “do everything in his power to return Afrin and other northern areas under Turkish control to the Kurds, who are an integral part of Syria.”

In another video, SDF forces were seen transporting Syrian Army surface-to-air missile batteries into their territory. Israel had not targeted these.

A meticulously crafted plan has been set into motion in Syria, and its actors are executing it with precision. The collapse of the Assad regime is a complementary event, much like Israel’s occupations of Gaza and Lebanon. While the US and Israel follow the script, Russia, Iran, and Turkey struggle to position themselves.

Whether the new regime in Damascus is genuine or a cleverly orchestrated trap will become clear sooner than expected.

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