The more-than-half-century-long “Assad regime” has come to an end. The Baath regime has left behind a devastated country with its infrastructure, institutions, military, economic, and social dynamics completely dismantled. The task of rebuilding this country has now fallen to a group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), previously associated with the Al-Qaeda terror organization, and its leader, Muhammad al-Jolani.
Both in Turkey and internationally, there is a general belief that Jolani will not be able to succeed in this daunting task or, if he does, that he will establish a backward Taliban-like regime. Despite his “moderate” messaging, his background, the nature of the organization he leads, and its supporters, coupled with the Taliban precedent, have led to deep-seated prejudice against him.
Whether Muhammad al-Jolani can shoulder this enormous burden remains a big question mark. There are massive economic challenges. Based on recent statements, it seems Assad has left behind an empty treasury. Moreover, neighboring countries, especially Israel and Turkey, are complicating Jolani’s mission.
Israel Wants a Weak Central Authority in Syria
Israel desires a confederal structure in Syria with a weak central authority—one that could be easily fragmented. In contrast, Turkey envisions a strong centralized regime where Kurds hold minimal influence.
Following the collapse of the Assad regime, the two main “winners” in Syria—Israel and Turkey—have already begun to act. Israel, in the south, is both expanding its occupation of the Golan Heights and destroying key military sites, economic infrastructure, and even official records within the country.
While Israel claims its goal is to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of radical groups, its real intent appears to be to tie the hands of HTS-led factions trying to establish a new government. By further radicalizing these groups and provoking internal conflict, Israel aims to push Syria toward disintegration—a fragmented Syria being the most advantageous scenario for Israel.
A Nightmare for Turkey
However, a fragmented Syria would spell disaster not only for Turkey but also for other Arab nations in the region. Therefore, implementing Israel’s plan won’t be easy.
A united Syria, on the other hand, offers significant opportunities for Turkey, at least “for now.” If, albeit unlikely, Syria manages to maintain its unity and internal stability, the following scenarios could unfold:
- Preventing a Kurdish Corridor: Turkey views a Kurdish corridor extending to the Mediterranean as a threat to its existence. It opposes Kurdish control of the western bank of the Euphrates River and has so far succeeded in preventing this in partnership with the United States.
- Reconstruction Efforts: Rebuilding Syria will require tens of billions of dollars. Turkey could play a primary role in this reconstruction process.
- Political Reconstruction: Turkey could also lead Syria’s political reconstruction. Even if the HTS-led government becomes less dependent on Turkey, it is unlikely to take any major steps against its powerful neighbor at this stage.
- Soft Power Strategy: By reviving its pre-2011 “soft power” policy, Turkey could establish an EU-like structure in the Middle East. Turkey previously envisioned this and laid the groundwork by signing free trade agreements with many countries in the region, including Palestine. Israel had also responded positively to this approach.
- Regional Peace: If Turkey implements this policy, it could create a foundation for regional peace, benefiting Israel as well.
- Weakening Iran: Such a project led by Turkey could derail Iran’s ambitions of creating a “Shiite Crescent,” forcing Tehran to adopt more moderate policies in the region.
- Empowering Kurds: A period of regional détente would also benefit Kurds, allowing them to gain greater influence in their respective countries.
Not Impossible but Very Difficult
This list could go on. Is there a chance these scenarios will materialize? Of course. But it is extremely difficult. If this scenario fails and Syria disintegrates, a nightmare begins for Turkey. This scenario would open Pandora’s box. Internal conflict, chaos, and turmoil may provide short-term advantages for some countries, but in the long run, this scenario benefits no one.
