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Russia’s Regional Moves in the Shadow of Victory Day: Armenia “Out,” South Ossetia “In”

The Victory Day celebrations held in Moscow’s Red Square and across Russia carry deep and multilayered significance for the country. The ceremonies leading up to May 9—the anniversary of victory in World War II—serve both as historical remembrance and as powerful expressions of national pride. Traditionally, the events also feature military parades and displays of military hardware, showcasing Russia’s strength. For the Russian people, these ceremonies symbolize national unity and solidarity, representing a defining historical moment that binds different segments of society together. Preparations continue for months, and the events also provide opportunities to discuss regional and global cooperation with invited foreign leaders. By hosting foreign heads of state and diplomats, Russia reinforces political alliances and forges new partnerships, while reminding the international community of its historical role and continued relevance as a global power.

Last weekend, Russia celebrated the 81st Victory Day anniversary. President Vladimir Putin delivered messages on both regional and global affairs in a series of speeches. Declaring that Russia had saved the world from the scourge of Nazism, Putin stated: “We will never forget that it was the Soviet soldier who made the decisive contribution to defeating Nazism, who saved his country and the world, who put an end to ruthless evil, and who restored sovereignty to nations—including European peoples—that had bowed before Hitler’s Germany.” Referring to the military operation in Ukraine, Putin said: “The operation continues in order to protect the people of Donbass and ensure Russia’s security. A ceasefire option does not mean that the war is over. However, there is no need for full mobilization; our current forces and resources are sufficient to achieve our objectives.”

Putin also emphasized that the global system is rapidly changing: “Today we see the emergence of a fairer multipolar architecture. This architecture must be based on all the norms of the United Nations Charter, on the principle of equal and indivisible security, and on respect for the cultural and civilizational diversity of peoples and their right to self-determination.” The Russian leader argued that multipolarity is now a reality and stressed that such a model can only be sustainable if built on equality and mutual respect. He openly warned against the rise of new hegemonic powers, saying: “Multipolarity does not mean the emergence of new hegemons.” Russia has long criticized the West—particularly the United States—for attempting to preserve a unipolar world order, while the Kremlin argues that new centers of power are emerging across Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

New Cooperation Opportunities with World Leaders

Victory Day celebrations also provide Moscow with an important international platform to build new partnerships with foreign leaders. The Kremlin invites presidents, prime ministers, and senior representatives from numerous countries to attend the ceremonies. Beyond the official events, these gatherings create opportunities for informal meetings and new areas of cooperation. Energy, trade, and culture are among the sectors discussed. Prior to this year’s celebrations, Kremlin meetings were held with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was also among the foreign leaders who traveled to Moscow for the Victory Day events.

Relations between Russia and Kazakhstan can generally be described as close, strategic, and multidimensional. The two countries maintain cooperation at the level of “alliance” and “strategic partnership.” Both are members of organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). These frameworks strengthen both political and economic ties. Similarly, relations between Russia and Uzbekistan are friendly, close, and increasingly deepening. In recent years, both countries have taken important steps to elevate their ties to the level of strategic partnership. Russia remains one of Uzbekistan’s largest trading partners, with extensive cooperation in energy, machinery, agriculture, and the automotive industry. Russian companies continue to invest in Uzbekistan’s energy and industrial sectors. In addition, large-scale labor migration from Uzbekistan to Russia further strengthens the economic and social ties between the two countries. While Uzbekistan cooperates closely with Russia on security matters, it also seeks to preserve its strategic independence and avoid complete dependency.

Particular attention should be paid to the participation of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. In a lengthy video message posted on Facebook, Fico stated that he had important messages for his European Union counterparts following a two-hour meeting with Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin. “The absence of equal political dialogue with Russia is a major mistake. This was once again confirmed during our discussions,” he said. Fico openly rejected the emergence of a new Iron Curtain between the EU and Russia. He described the European Union’s goal of completely abandoning Russian energy as “an ideologically motivated approach that damages Europe’s competitiveness.” According to Fico: “We cannot replace one energy dependency with another simply because of hatred toward Russia. That would be far more expensive.” He argued that high energy prices are effectively “a tax Europe is paying because of its own foolishness and ideological obsession with Russia.” Fico further claimed that the United States would soon acquire Europe’s gas and oil transportation infrastructure, then purchase Russian energy at standard prices and resell it to Europe “with high American profit margins.”

Putin Offers Energy Guarantees to Slovakia, Calls for a “Soft Divorce” with Armenia

During the meeting, Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would do everything necessary to meet Slovakia’s energy needs. He acknowledged that relations between the two countries had become more difficult due to what he described as the “confrontational line” pursued by the EU and NATO, but said that dialogue had now resumed. Putin also addressed Russia’s relationship with Armenia. In response to Armenia’s ambitions to join the European Union, he argued that the will of the Armenian people must first be reflected at the ballot box. Otherwise, Moscow would be prepared for a “soft, intellectual, and mutually beneficial divorce.” Putin directly called on the Armenian leadership to clarify its strategic choice between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the European Union as soon as possible.

The Russian leader said Moscow was prepared to discuss Armenia’s EU orientation at the upcoming EAEU summit in Astana on May 28–29. Putin’s remarks have been interpreted as a sign that relations between Moscow and Yerevan may be approaching a new phase following growing tensions in recent years. Putin had already delivered a clear message during his December 2025 meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan: “A country cannot simultaneously be a member of both the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Union.” However, these statements should not necessarily be interpreted as Russia preparing to lose Armenia entirely. Rather, they suggest the possibility of a carefully managed and “civilized separation,” with the terms defined in advance. Putin’s use of expressions such as “intellectual” and “soft” indicates that economic ties may continue, even if the legal and political framework is redefined.

South Ossetia Moves Toward Deeper Integration with Russia

Another significant development was the emphasis placed on the integration agreement between Russia and South Ossetia during the Kremlin meeting with South Ossetian President Alan Gagloev. Gagloev stated that the document to be signed would mark “the beginning of the reunification of the Ossetian people.” The South Ossetian leader added: “Our close allied relations are reaching a new level.” Vladimir Putin described the agreement as “the further development of the existing agreements and legal framework,” adding that it would deepen bilateral ties particularly in trade, economics, and the resolution of social issues in the interests of South Ossetian citizens.

During the Soviet era, South Ossetia was part of Georgia. It declared independence in 1992. After Georgian forces entered the region and shelled the capital, Tskhinvali, on the night of August 8, 2008, then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev launched a military operation. Following five days of conflict, Medvedev officially recognized South Ossetia’s independence on August 26, 2008. The same year, Russia and South Ossetia signed a cooperation and mutual assistance agreement. The new agreement is expected to go further than the 2008 framework and elevate relations to the level of “integration.” According to experts, the agreement envisions coordinated policies across multiple sectors, particularly in economic and social affairs.

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ARIF ASALIOGLU
ARIF ASALIOGLU
Arif Asalıoğlu is General Director of the International Institute of the Development of Science Cooperation in Moscow; expert in the field of Russian-Turkish relations; columnist of Informational agency REGNUM; Founder of Russian and Turkish Intellectuals Meeting.
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