M. Ahmet Karabay
Keeping up with the news is impossible. Not long ago, those outside looking for a thrill would turn to the Turkish agenda. Now the world agenda is competing with Turkey. Where will the war clouds that have enveloped the region and the country lead? Everyone is chasing the answer to this question.
Today, we will take you away from the agenda and take a tour through palace intrigues.
In the U.S., there are elections with a favored presidential candidate who says, “If I don’t get elected, World War III will start!” The likelihood of the economic war centered around China in the Far East turning into a war with weapons is increasing day by day. There’s curiosity about what the new landscape will be for Ukraine and Europe after the war that began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in our north. It is still unclear how Venezuela, under Maduro, who declared himself the winner before the vote count was finished, will evolve. And, of course, the inevitability of a regional war in the Middle East, where Turkey is located, is being discussed. Predictions exist about what Israel, which has gone overboard, will turn its dream of making the region like Gaza into, but there is no certainty.
LONGER IN POWER THAN 25 OF THE 36 OTTOMAN SULTANS
We’ll set all this aside and focus on palace intrigues. When we say palace intrigue, why do we automatically think of the Ottoman or Byzantine periods? If a leader has been in power for 22 years and has built the 1100-room Beştepe Palace, which would make rulers in the Ottoman palaces jealous, Sultan Recep Tayyip has more than the Ottoman rulers in every way!
Beştepe Palace is larger than the sum of the grand palaces known to have been built by the Ottomans. The largest known Ottoman palace, Topkapı Palace, has 402 rooms, and Dolmabahçe Palace has 319 rooms.
Sultan Recep Tayyip has been in power longer than 25 of the 36 Ottoman sultans. Now he is trying to surpass the reign of the 24th Ottoman ruler, Mahmud I, who ruled for 24 years (1730-1754). While Turkey claims to be a democracy, Erdoğan, with the environment he has created, is ruling the country with a luxury and wealth no Ottoman ruler could have dreamed of, and as a “single man.”
Although the Ottoman rulers stood out as a single name, the opinions of the grand vizier, the sheikh al-Islam, and the governors of Anatolia and Rumelia were extremely important. Sultans could execute people, but they could never make decisions about matters concerning the country alone. Erdoğan, by consolidating all powers, is “luckier” than almost all his predecessors. To those who say, “There is opposition and media in Turkey,” I would like to make one reminder.
During the Ottoman period, during the reign of Bayezid I (1389-1402), the tradition of court jesters began. This practice was forgotten with the proclamation of the Tanzimat (1839). These jesters would say whatever they wanted, amuse the sultan with strange actions and approaches, and sometimes anger him.
Unfortunately, Beştepe Palace’s view and positioning of the media and opposition today is no different. In the old days, there was the saying, “There can be a sultan without a jester, but not a jester without a sultan!” Today, Beştepe’s mindset is, “There can be power without opposition, but not opposition without power!”
TWO SONS-IN-LAW AND A PRINCE EVALUATION
Sultan Recep Tayyip is so powerful that he runs the country on his own and does not designate his successors like the Ottoman rulers? In fact, the Ottoman rulers did not determine who would be the heir; sometimes the princes fiercely competed among themselves and even entered into bloody conflicts that engulfed the country. Later, the “ekber and erşed” system was implemented.
In my article titled “Erdoğan Will Choose His Successor Before He Leaves” on November 18, 2023, I wrote in detail about who could be the successor. I mentioned names preparing for the post-Erdoğan period, thinking the country was being ruled by a democratic system. These included Süleyman Soylu, Hulusi Akar, Hakan Fidan, and Numan Kurtulmuş. None of these names are mentioned anymore, except for Hakan Fidan, who might soon be sidelined for “messing up things at the Foreign Ministry” and being deemed incompetent.
OLD FRIENDS STARTED CALLING MORE FREQUENTLY
Recently, old friends who I haven’t spoken to in years have started calling more frequently. Despite knowing that I am quietly occupied with my readings, they insist on asking for my views on current events.
Although I tell them that I no longer follow politics and developments as I used to, they persist in asking about Erdoğan’s statements like “We will enter Israel too!” and the developments following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. After expressing my views in a few sentences, I try to make them talk. Since they generally refrain from commenting too much, the conversation usually doesn’t go beyond a 10-15 minute phone chat.
One person, who served as a minister in AK Party governments and now spends “pleasant times with friends” as he says, and whom I have known for over 30 years, called me. He had sent a get-well message through a mutual friend after Silivri. Apparently, he didn’t dare to call at that time.
Anyway… after a brief “How are you? What are you doing?” chat, he quickly got to the point. Knowing that some of my predictions in the past had come true, he said, “I value and trust your predictions,” and asked, “Where are we headed?”
Today, I don’t want to share these topics. I often asked questions to my interlocutor and tried to make him talk. Since he is still considered one of the “heavyweights” within the AK Party, his answers were important to me. Actually, he had asked me about the future of the AK Party. After saying a few words, I passed the ball to him by saying, “Erdoğan will step down somehow. Either through death or elections… He will go one way or another. A leader like Erdoğan would not leave without shaping what comes after him.”
AN EVALUATION OF TWO SONS-IN-LAW AND A PRINCE
My interlocutor emphasized that those outside the dynasty had no chance and made interesting comments. He pointed out that the elder son-in-law Berat Albayrak ended his ministry period in a very wrong way and stressed that he greatly shook the President’s trust. He said he didn’t quite agree with the comments by some circles that “Erdoğan pulled him back a bit to let him lie fallow.” He added, “Sharing his resignation on his Instagram account was perceived as a direct move against the President.”
Regarding Albayrak, he added, “He put a question mark, but he didn’t cross him off!” From what I understood, the fact that Berat has recently been attending TÜGVA events and being among the founders of a new foundation indicates that he hasn’t been completely written off. He emphasized that the younger son Bilal Erdoğan has a serious capacity problem, saying, “If the President saw any sign that he could manage the party and the country, he would have given him important roles in the party or government to test him.”
Nevertheless, he said that Prince Bilal, although not in significant positions himself, makes great efforts to have his friends and associates in important places. Moreover, he provided examples showing that Bilal follows every step of these appointments. He emphasized that Bilal Erdoğan is the most powerful in terms of state staffing.
My interlocutor noted that Selçuk Bayraktar has a significant influence on the party base and youth. He said that both Bilal and Berat were elbowing Bayraktar. He added that even the annual Teknofest organized by the younger son-in-law would be more lackluster this year compared to previous years. In a jesting manner, I said, “So there’s a possibility that Teknofest might not be held this year!” He replied, “Not that much. Because it has a commercial side as much as it is for domestic audiences. I don’t think they will cancel it.”
He said that Erdoğan does not discard his two sons-in-law, is trying to make Bilal a little more competent, but has doubts about how successful he will be.
When I asked, “What about the continuation of Erdoğan’s own power?” he said, “That’s a whole different story.”
