The uprising in Syria has ended the 53-year-long oppressive rule of the Assad family. This process resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands and forced millions to flee their homes. This struggle, which began in 2011, impacted not only Syria but also the fate of the Middle East. Ultimately, the demoralized Syrian army crumbled under the attacks of the rebels, and Bashar al-Assad fled the country. Syria now stands on the brink of a new political order.
While celebrations have erupted in many parts of Syria, concerns about the future are growing. The outcomes in countries like Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia, Libya, and Iraq do not paint a promising picture. Assad’s fall bears similarities to other dictators overthrown during the Arab Spring. However, this time, the scenario is different.
The coming days will determine the fate of fragmented Syria and could lead to profound geopolitical shifts, reshaping the Middle East’s political map. Syria has long been a geopolitical battleground involving both regional and global powers, directly or indirectly. The fall of the Assad regime has significantly altered regional power dynamics, complicating the situation further.
During the Arab Spring, countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia supported jihadist rebels in Syria. Turkey sought to keep the Kurds in check. While the U.S. and European nations despised Assad, they viewed the Islamic State (ISIS) as a greater threat. Russia similarly used Assad as a pawn, supporting the regime with its air power. Iran played a crucial role, especially through Hezbollah, which paved the way for Israeli attacks on Syria.
When Bashar al-Assad took power in 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, there was great hope. The West saw him, a UK-educated ophthalmologist who hinted at a reformist vision and released some political prisoners, as a potential asset. However, he quickly returned to family traditions, suppressing both secular-democratic and Islamist opposition, ultimately surpassing even his father’s notoriety.
Now, with Assad’s fall, a new power game has begun in the country. Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu view Assad’s departure to Moscow as their victory. Both countries have announced continued attacks on ISIS strongholds and Syrian army weapon depots.
Israel, violating the 1974 agreement between the two nations, crossed the 50-year-old buffer zone into Syrian territory, including the occupied Golan Heights. This seemingly temporary territorial gain now appears irreversible. Some ministers in Israel’s far-right government are even discussing extending this pressure to Damascus.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, who is on a $10 million bounty list, is being reintroduced as a pragmatist in Western media. He is strengthening ties with Alawites, Christians, and Druze communities. However, the Kurds, targeted by Turkey, are deeply uneasy with his ambiguous identity.
Regardless of the name al-Julani adopts, he is set to play a significant role in Syria’s transitional phase. There is hope that the ideologically and ethnically diverse Assad-opposing groups can form a cohesive government. The classification of groups like HTS as terrorists may change in the future, but other groups supported by malicious external forces may emerge during this process.
A new power struggle has already begun as regional countries vie for influence over Syria’s political trajectory. The collapse of one of modern history’s longest-standing dictatorships coincides with a period of profound turmoil across the entire region.
But the critical question remains: What’s next for Syria? Following Assad’s fall, the country has not seen large-scale violence, but various rebel militias now control it. Can these groups agree on a common political agenda? Some are puppets of regional powers rather than independent actors, making the transition process extremely complex.
The transition will not be easy in a divided country that has overthrown a long-standing dictatorship. The deep involvement of external powers remains a significant factor in post-revolution developments.
Key players in overthrowing the Assad regime include the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which control northern territories. Whether these diverse groups can agree on a democratic political process is uncertain. A temporary structure is planned, but the next major challenge will be holding elections to establish a representative democratic system.
Regional politics will be reshaped. Many countries, including the U.S., Russia, Iran, Israel, and Turkey, maintain military forces in Syria. Russia and Iran supported Assad’s regime militarily during the uprising, but even with direct assistance from these two countries, the regime failed to quell the rebellion.
Moscow continues to maintain its military bases in the country, though its long-term presence seems unsustainable. Turkey, leveraging its control over certain regions and influence over rebel groups, will likely have greater sway in shaping Syria’s political future.
For now, Syria’s future remains uncertain, caught between public expectations and the interests of international actors. Steps toward establishing a democratic government will be challenging.
