The ongoing war between the United States, Israel, and Iran is not only reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East but also signaling the onset of major global crises. The parties continue to launch retaliatory missile strikes in rapid succession. Iran’s energy facilities, electrical infrastructure, bridges—virtually everything—are being targeted. U.S. President Trump has called on Tehran to accept Washington’s imposed conditions. However, Iran maintains that the attacks by Israel and the U.S. are based on false and unfounded claims, while appealing to the international community for support and emphasizing its own security priorities.
At this stage, the situation directly concerns not only the Middle East but also the Caucasus, Central Asia, Russia, China, and global energy flows.
In recent years, Iran has become an important partner for Russia. Examples of this partnership include Iranian-made Shahed kamikaze drones used by Russia in the Ukraine war, financial and trade channels developed to circumvent Western sanctions, as well as cooperation in military technology and nuclear fields. If the Iranian regime were to collapse, Russia would lose a key military supplier. Its “sanctions solidarity” against the West would weaken. Moreover, a decline in Iran’s regional influence would disrupt Russia’s strategic balance in the Caucasus and Central Asia. When Iran remains strong, the influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan is limited from Moscow’s perspective, allowing Russia to exert greater control over regional dynamics.
Given Iran’s deep historical and cultural roots, its potential collapse in this existential conflict is already a source of concern in Moscow due to the strategic losses it would entail. Such a collapse would mean a fundamental shift in the regional balance of power. Other actors—such as the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, or NATO—could fill the vacuum, or the distribution of power could change entirely. As seen in Syria, the region could slip completely out of Russia’s sphere of influence. Consequently, Russia’s regional power and geopolitical position would weaken, forcing it to develop new partnerships and strategies, possibly redirecting its focus toward Asia, Central Asia, North Africa, or Southeastern Europe.
From another perspective, Iran is also one of Russia’s key allies in Syria. A collapse of Iran would negatively impact Russia’s Syria policy. If Iran’s military and political role in the region diminishes, Russia’s broader strategies and interests would suffer as well. Additionally, radical groups and terrorist organizations (such as ISIS), often influenced by global power dynamics, could exploit the resulting chaos and re-emerge. In the long term, this would pose serious risks to Russia’s security interests.
For Russia, Iran’s collapse would also mean economic and energy losses
Oil and natural gas exports are a central component of Iran’s economy, and Iran is a major player in regional energy markets. It also possesses advanced production capacity and plays a role in international energy projects. If Iran’s energy assets were to be lost or redistributed, other producers—especially Saudi Arabia and Russia—would face intensified competition to maintain or expand their market share. Energy prices and market structures would shift. This could ultimately reduce Russia’s revenues, given its dependence on energy exports.
While recent developments have had a positive impact on Russian energy prices, there is no guarantee that this trend will continue. Market instability could reduce trade volume between Iran and Russia and complicate Moscow’s economic planning.
Another critical issue concerns nuclear cooperation between Russia and Iran. If Iran collapses, uncontrolled and unpredictable developments could emerge in this domain. The risk of nuclear materials—whether weapons or components—going missing would increase. Security vulnerabilities could arise, and it would become uncertain who might gain access to such materials. Smuggling and illegal activities could expand, raising the risk that weapons, nuclear materials, or explosives could fall into the hands of other states or terrorist groups. In such a scenario, sensitive information shared by Russia could end up in the hands of uncontrolled actors or adversaries, increasing both regional and global security threats.
The current situation works in Russia’s favor
The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran—now over 38 days in—has, at least for the moment, provided Russia with certain advantages. For instance, critical defense systems originally intended for Ukraine are now being used in the Middle East. Washington’s focus has shifted from Kyiv to Tehran. Ukraine has become such a secondary priority that it was not even included in the U.S. 2027 defense budget.
Rising energy prices are directly increasing Russia’s revenues from oil and gas exports. The crisis is also pushing China and India to purchase more Russian energy. This means Moscow benefits both from higher global prices and from reduced discounts on Russian oil. Meanwhile, the approach of Asian and Middle Eastern countries toward the United States is shifting. Saudi Arabia has already signaled that it may suspend its security agreements with Washington.
In this environment, Russia’s main competitors—the U.S. and the European Union—are weakening. Energy prices are rising, and inflation is increasing.
A clear example of this dynamic was the G7 Foreign Ministers’ summit held on March 26–27 in Vaux-de-Cernay, France, which exposed deep fractures within the Western alliance. The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, openly challenged U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Kallas reminded Rubio of his statement at the G7 summit in Canada a year earlier, where he said, “If Russia continues to obstruct, U.S. patience may run out.” She then asked: “A year has passed, and Russia hasn’t budged. When will your patience run out?”
Rubio responded sharply: “We are doing everything we can to end the war. If you think you can do better, go ahead—we will step aside.”
This deep disagreement over Ukraine is intertwined with diverging views on the Iran operation. Europe’s lack of support for Iran and the U.S. questioning its commitment to Ukraine point to one of the most severe crises in the transatlantic alliance.
Conclusion
The potential collapse of Iran would bring significant regional and global losses and challenges for Russia. It would negatively affect multiple areas, including fluctuations in energy markets and shifts in regional power balances. This, in turn, would weaken Russia’s regional influence and jeopardize its geopolitical position.
Moreover, Iran’s collapse would complicate energy supply in the region, potentially driving up prices while simultaneously harming Russia’s economy, which depends on energy trade revenues. Instability in energy markets could also contribute to broader global economic volatility and reduce Russia’s external income.
An escalating crisis in the Middle East would increase the risk of nuclear materials or weapons falling out of control, creating serious uncertainty and danger for international security. It would become unclear who might acquire such materials and for what purpose.
Finally, if Iran were to come under Western control, it could heighten security concerns and economic pressures within Russia itself, potentially forcing the Kremlin to pursue new alliances and strategic directions in its foreign policy.
