Necip F. Bahadir
Tayyip Erdoğan, in a surprising move a few days ago, said, “March 31 is the final for me, this is my last election.” Yes, he has previously given the “I am leaving!” message three times. But he neither bid farewell to his party nor to the presidency. Considering his past words, the “This is my last election!” statement might seem meaningless. Indeed, comments and evaluations were in this direction.
I looked at the context of his words. It doesn’t seem like a planned, premeditated statement, rather something said in passing. If he had read it from a script, the situation would have been much different. It seems his words during a conversation about the March 31 elections only serve to remind of the ‘regulation’, signifying nothing more than a determination of the legal situation. Erdoğan’s words are merely about the ‘final’ and ‘last election’… Had he said otherwise, it would have been meaningful. Will he not leave after completing his term? Some think not. But it’s not that long.
What Erdoğan did was merely to articulate the ‘ordinary state’ by saying ‘the authority given by the law’. This departure cannot be compared to his previous statements, as now there’s a ‘legal obligation’. More accurately, there’s a ‘clear provision’ of the Constitution. For AKP and Erdoğan, one might say, ‘What’s the law or the Constitution to them!’ It’s true, Erdoğan has a history of ignoring the law and the Constitution. Why stay within the limits of ‘legal authority’ now…
Those viewing the issue from this angle are not unjustified.
Actually, statements like ‘my final and last election’ contain emotional messages that will affect the electorate. If AKP had campaigned on ‘Erdoğan’s finale’ in the run-up to the March 31 elections, it would have found resonance with the public. Sending off Erdoğan in a ‘farewell atmosphere’ could bring additional votes to AKP. Neither Erdoğan nor AKP spokespeople followed up on the ‘final message’. Clearly, Erdoğan’s words are not election-related. The message is not for the electorate.
Those prone to conspiracy theories point to ‘power centers’ influential in politics as the target. I’m skeptical of conspiracy theories. If so, he delivered his message ‘reluctantly’ and with a weak style. I don’t entertain that possibility.
What follows would blatantly violate the Constitution! Interestingly, those words were not taken very seriously domestically, except by those in AKP who owe their positions to Erdoğan. Such ‘grey times’ in politics become a race to curry favor. There’s no shortage of those who cry, shouting, “Don’t go!” Indeed, some names in AKP started devising formulas by highlighting the system’s loopholes. Mustafa Elitaş, whose name is often mentioned in ‘exchange’ allegations, spoke up. Bekir Bozdağ, one of the architects of the process of illegality, entered the fray.
Lastly, Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç made a statement. Like Bekir Bozdağ, he emphasized that Erdoğan could run again if the Parliament decides on an early election. Even coming from the mouth of the Justice Minister, these legally and systematically challenging formulas are not ‘to be taken seriously’. If so, why was the provision ‘The President is elected for two terms’ included in the Constitution? No formula is above the Constitution.
It’s true that Erdoğan’s current term is ‘controversial’. But what follows will not be ‘controversial’; it will blatantly ‘violate the Constitution’. I don’t think Erdoğan will push the law and the system too far. Yes, Erdoğan will leave. Not just the presidency but also the chairmanship of AKP…
Another point missed in his speech. Somehow, the continuation of the sentence didn’t attract as much attention.
Erdoğan said, “The outcome of March 31 will be a transfer of trust for the brothers who will come after me.” Although he emphasizes March 31, the ‘transfer of trust’ is not dependent on the outcome of the election. I believe the emphasis on March 31 indicates that the process of transferring trust will accelerate. Erdoğan has made the decision to leave in his inner world… And has entered the search for a ‘successor’. The public may not have noticed, but in AKP, the ‘transfer of trust’ process has begun.
The question “Will he leave?” is outdated and meaningless. As a journalist said, Erdoğan’s promise of an ‘Erdoğanless Turkey’ is real.
The current question; who will be the successor? The current and significant question is to whom Erdoğan will transfer his legacy, who the successor will be? There is no standout name in the party. In structures where leaders are strong, there are no second or third men. There’s a big gap in between. As far as I understand, Erdoğan will introduce a new name to the field, not someone from the past. And he won’t wait for the end of the term.
Likely, Erdoğan will transfer the chairmanship of AKP to a suitable name before the presidency term ends. Then, a possible opposition government would mean disaster for both AKP and Erdoğan. I conclude that he will start preparing the name to whom he will transfer the legacy after March 31, influenced by the election results.
Looking for the successor within the ‘family circle’ is not realistic. The fiasco of Berat Albayrak being presented as a successor candidate is evident. In Turkish politics, the society does not favor leaders’ relatives succeeding them. No charismatic leader’s family continuation has emerged to date. The MHP base did not even give the party chairmanship visa to the son of the founding leader Alpaslan Türkeş. Children of İnönü, Menderes, and Özal who leaned towards politics never got to sit in their fathers’ seats.
Erdoğan, quite adept at drawing lessons from political history, is aware of this fact… Therefore, the successor will be someone from outside the family. Those appointed don’t succeed. Need examples? Özal’s Yıldırım Akbulut and Mesut Yılmaz, Demirel’s Tansu Çiller… Leaders are born from political conditions. And the current political climate and conditions are highly favorable for new births. However, it must come from grassroots pressure, not top-down appointments. No strong leader capable of consolidating the party will emerge from AKP after Erdoğan.
March 31, Meral Akşener’s Fate Election A similar message came from İYİ Party Leader Meral Akşener. During election campaigning, she said to the citizens, “We took a big risk. We are coming before you on our own. If you don’t vote for us, I will return home. I will not deal with politics at all. I have put myself in this position.” It’s true that March 31 is Akşener’s ‘fate election’.
Apart from Enver Yılmaz, whom İYİ Party transferred from AKP in Ordu, there’s no city where it’s the favorite. Let alone being competitive, İYİ Party’s candidates are not even in the race, barely mentioned. Akşener’s strategy is not about winning, but causing a loss to her former partner, CHP. Even then, she struggles to consolidate her base in metropolises like Istanbul and Ankara. Don’t be fooled by the current focus on her; Akşener has been a very influential actor in shaping Turkish politics. Her mistakes outnumber her correct moves.
Erdoğan owes his last two presidential election victories to her. In 2018, she single-handedly thwarted the opposition bloc’s project to nominate Abdullah Gül. She became a candidate herself. Couldn’t even surpass the 10% threshold. In the last election, she ‘spoiled’ the ‘Table of Six’ during the candidate selection process. Her indecisiveness extinguished the public’s hopes.
She paid a heavy price for it. While she had the potential to be Erdoğan’s opponent, she is now preparing to bid farewell to politics. The curse of the ballot box struck Akşener. If only she had ‘read the politics correctly and developed a strategic game plan’, even the presidency could have been possible. Despite her experience, there’s no explanation for the ‘teen politician’ novelties she displayed one after another. Unless she’s involved in non-political traffic…
Most likely, March 31 will be Meral Akşener’s ‘finale and last election’. Catching a vote rate that offers hope for power seems highly unlikely. Unless the ballot box pulls a surprise. Resignations from the party management and organizations seem to lead to disintegration at the base. A sharp decline in the vote rate wouldn’t be surprising. Akşener’s losing her seat and returning home is highly probable. I don’t think maneuvers like trying to be a part of the government by backing up MHP after the election will work.
Sinan Oğan Winks at İYİ Party! Someone has already started hinting at taking her place. Who? The surprise of the presidential election, Sinan Oğan… Oğan, who wasn’t much seen after May, participated in İYİ Party’s election campaign in Yozgat and asked for votes. The party management was not pleased, of course. Clearly, Oğan has his eye on İYİ Party leadership… He’s not ideologically distant from İYİ Party. He has been in politics with many İYİ Party members in MHP. And it seems he’s involved in some dealings. I don’t believe he’s acting alone.
After March 31, the process of transferring the mantle to the successor will accelerate in AKP, while in İYİ Party, Akşener will return home, not even dealing with politics. She might want to influence the choice of her successor, but it will be difficult. A seat will be found for the available Sinan Oğan. And the political debt of May will be paid this way.
Though I mentioned I’m skeptical of conspiracy theories, some might see my statements as such. Instead of labeling them conspiracy theories, it would be more accurate to say reading between the lines and drawing conclusions.
