As the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran continues to unfold, the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Gulf region remain at the center of global attention. Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions—and the future of sanctions on Iran—are becoming increasingly complex. Yet over the past two months, the posture adopted by Washington and Tel Aviv on the international stage has, perhaps unintentionally, created space for Russia and China to expand both their regional and global influence.
In this environment, Russia, China, Iran, and other actors are deepening cooperation across multiple domains, building alternatives to a single dominant regional or global power center. Meanwhile, the United States is rapidly losing both credibility and influence.
Russia and China are consolidating their presence through institutional frameworks such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, maintaining economic and military engagement across the Gulf and throughout Africa, while also pursuing joint military projects with Iran. Their influence continues to grow in industry, energy, and investment. In more distant theaters such as the Asia-Pacific and the South China Sea, U.S. influence is increasingly constrained, while China is stepping up both its military and economic initiatives to assert dominance. As a result, efforts to sustain a unipolar order are faltering, and global power balances are steadily shifting toward a multipolar configuration—particularly across Asia and Africa over the past decade.
European countries, for their part, are also seeking greater strategic autonomy. As a reflexive response to shifting dynamics, they are diversifying their policies and attempting to assert a more independent voice in defense and foreign affairs. The war in Ukraine and the Iran-centered Gulf crisis have accelerated this trend. EU states are now committing to long-term defense budgets, while policymakers are engaged in competition not only militarily, but also economically and technologically. Each capital is pursuing new alliances and strategies to strengthen its position both regionally and globally.
Crises and conflicts, in this sense, are accelerating the transition toward a multipolar world.
These complex transformations—driven in part by the realities of the technological age—are reinforcing the concept of a multipolar balance rather than a single-centered global order. Since the COVID era, rising tensions and conflicts have pushed the global system away from a single axis of power toward a more fragmented, multi-centered structure. As powers compete, they are simultaneously forging new alliances and balancing mechanisms, resulting in a more intricate and multi-layered international system. In short, the world is being reshaped.
Today, the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union operate as independent centers of power, each pursuing its own regional and global interests. Russia and China are actively working to diminish U.S. unilateral dominance while expanding their own influence—and they make no effort to conceal this. On international platforms, they consistently emphasize the need for a multipolar world order. Meanwhile, Washington’s strategic inconsistencies are creating further openings—evident in both the Ukraine war and the Iran crisis.
During the Biden administration, Washington fueled the war in Ukraine through maximum support, only to see elements of its own strategy undermined under the Trump era. In Iran, unclear strategy and short-term, poorly calculated decisions have led to a significant erosion of trust. Although Iran suffered major material losses, it emerged with a strengthened sense of prestige and moral standing. The key question now is how Tehran will leverage this perceived “momentum” in the region. The United States, by contrast, appears to be searching for ways to re-engage in landscapes it has helped devastate. Weekend talks in Pakistan revealed just how unrealistic and undefined the negotiating positions remain.
For the first time at this scale, Washington is being openly questioned—while Moscow gains ground.
The U.S. appetite for a comprehensive confrontation with Iran exposed both low morale within its ranks and limitations in operational capacity. None of the original objectives—weakening Iran or imposing its own terms—were achieved. Joint actions by the United States and Israel have drawn global backlash, leading to unprecedented scrutiny of Washington’s role. While Iran’s material losses are undeniable, the broader perception is quite the opposite: that it has not been defeated—and may even have emerged stronger in the face of two major powers. Meanwhile, the United States and Gulf monarchies appear to have incurred greater losses. Russia, on the other hand, has strengthened its strategic position. Washington’s focus has shifted from Kyiv to Tehran, while rising energy prices have boosted Russia’s oil and gas revenues. The crisis has also driven increased purchases from Russia by China and India, further reinforcing Moscow’s geopolitical standing.
Russia’s tax revenues from oil sales are expected to double in April compared to March, reaching approximately $9 billion, largely due to the war in Iran. According to Reuters, this represents roughly a 10% increase compared to April of last year. The surge is tied to rising global oil prices following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil and LNG flows. The average price of Russia’s Urals crude rose to $77 per barrel in March—up 73% from $44 in February and well above the $59 benchmark projected in this year’s budget.
Reuters describes this as one of the first tangible economic gains Russia has derived from the Iran conflict. Energy traders warn that the crisis could trigger one of the most severe energy shocks in modern history. The Kremlin has already noted rising global demand for Russian energy. According to Spain’s El País, the European Union is preparing emergency measures to address the energy crisis stemming from Middle East tensions. Some member states are even reconsidering direct oil and gas imports from Russia, as earlier austerity measures are being revisited.
In conclusion, the war initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran has not only intensified regional tensions but has also accelerated the transition toward a multipolar world order. The conflict has created space for powers like Russia and China to expand their influence, while enabling various countries to act more independently in pursuit of their own interests. As a result, the global system is moving away from a single center of power toward a landscape defined by multiple competing poles.
In short, this volatile and complex environment is reshaping the world into a far more multipolar order.
