M. Ahmet Karabay
When you look at the general perception, transforming a local election into a general election atmosphere benefits the opposition, not the ruling parties. The disarrayed state of the opposition led to the March 31 local elections pushing the government into a general election environment. The scenarios in Ankara post-election, however, are quite different.
Before moving on to the post-election scenarios in Ankara, it’s necessary to look behind the scenes of the unusual activity in foreign exchange before the election. The Turkish Lira is experiencing a rapid depreciation against major currencies. At the time of writing this article, the US Dollar is above 32, the European currency Euro is above 35, and the British currency Sterling is above 41 TL.
Even people with no economic background know that when the foreign exchange moves, it’s impossible to keep anything stable in Turkey. It would be absurd to explain how this situation causes anxiety in the markets.
The one most disturbed by the outcome is undoubtedly the Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, who is seen as the economy’s boss. The situation forced Şimşek to make statements. Known for making his important statements in English, Şimşek followed the same path this time.
Focusing on Turkey’s upgraded rating by the international rating agency Fitch, Şimşek emphasized that it reflects the strength of Turkey’s solid economic policies, and he expressed his determination to continue with solid policies and implement structural reforms:
Maintaining price stability continues to be our top priority. The rebalancing process of growth is going well. Domestic consumption is moderate, and net exports are increasing. The current account deficit is narrowing faster than expected, it will fall below 3% of GDP this year. The share of TL deposits has increased by 12 points since last August. Momentum towards achieving a healthy fiscal balance is progressing in a positive direction. Şimşek highlighted two more important points: that achieving price stability will take time, and the fluctuation in the foreign exchange market is temporary.
‘RUMORS ABOUT ŞİMŞEK LEAVING’ SPIKED THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE
The reason that pushed the Treasury and Finance Minister to make these “assurance” type statements was the rumors last week that Mehmet Şimşek would leave his position after the election.
Be assured that the “Is Mehmet Şimşek staying or leaving?” article you read in this column on March 5th was not the source of these claims. I felt the need to convey it when the claim began to be discussed in a very narrow frame. The rapid movement in foreign exchange had not yet started when this article was written.
Murat Yetkin, known for his accurate reflection and follow-up on political agenda topics, explained in detail that the panic caused in the financial markets in Istanbul by the rumors that Mehmet Şimşek would be removed from his position after the election is behind the rapid climb in foreign exchange.
POST-ELECTION OTHER SCENARIOS
In environments where science is strong, physical experiments are conducted in laboratories. In societies where democracy is rooted, simulations related to social issues are carried out in think tanks.
In our democracy, which limps along and is crippled, the absence of independent institutions like think tanks often means that their place is attempted to be filled by ‘whisper newspapers’ filled with conflicting news.
One of these claims is related to a source of 64 billion dollars expected to enter Turkey. There was much effort to bring this amount into the country before the elections, but it was postponed until “After the election!” despite negotiations.
It is discussed that the foreign exchange will not rise rapidly after the election, contrary to the circulating claim, and a stable pricing process will be entered. The economic management’s price stability policy, based on the principle “If the foreign exchange rises, we can’t hold anything!” is being implemented. Mehmet Şimşek also emphasizes this point frequently, trying to dispel the dark clouds created for the post-election period.
Another post-election scenario involves operations against religious communities that have grown significantly recently. There has been a long debate about which one to start with. For some reason, most of the daisy fortunes seem to indicate the Menzil community.
While some argue that operations will begin with İsmailağa or Süleymancılar, whispers are louder from those saying, “Don’t you see, all the infrastructure for the operation has been established. As if the division of the community into three after the death of Sheikh father Abdülbaki Erol wasn’t enough, the brothers are asking for help from the state to operate against each other. The state will not refuse this request and will do the necessary after the election.”
THE MAIN WHISPER REVOLVES AROUND ERDOĞAN
Tayyip Erdoğan, having a hard time finding the atmosphere he wants in the local elections, tries to pull the country into a general election atmosphere to increase his party’s vote rate. Erdoğan’s statement that the March 31st, where his candidacy is not in question, will be his last election, was a significant step.
Following Erdoğan’s statement, Deputy Speaker of the Parliament from AK Party, Bekir Bozdağ, shared a constitutional provision that could allow Erdoğan to run for president again, highlighting Article 116, Clause 3 of the Constitution, which says, “In case the Parliament decides to renew elections during the president’s second term, the president can run once more.”
The approach of Bekir Bozdağ and AK Party Deputy Group Chairman Mustafa Elitaş, saying “Till death do us part!” reflects the absolute Erdoğan supporters’ side. There’s also a perspective of those who think, “We must think realistically.”
According to this group, Erdoğan’s health condition continues to be unstable. No health issues have arisen during this election campaign, unlike before the May 14 elections. However, what tomorrow brings is uncertain. According to this view, a mandatory change at the top could occur in a short period, possibly within 5-6 months after the elections, based on “health” issues.
Who knows, in the period Mehmet Şimşek mentioned, “There will be no new elections until 2028. The necessities of the economy will begin to be fully implemented,” Turkey might suddenly find itself in an unexpected election process.
While a stable four years were expected, the doors to a period of peak instability seem to be opening, which will likely be discussed in the new issues of the whisper newspapers.
