Yavuz Acar
The rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) can no longer be dismissed as a temporary wave of protest in German politics. In the latest election in Saxony-Anhalt, the party won approximately 43.8 percent of the vote, demonstrating the scale of the shift in the country’s political balance and showing that the radical right has built a broad enough electoral base to compete with Germany’s traditional parties for power. Having fallen just three seats short of an absolute majority, the debate is no longer primarily about how much further the AfD can grow, but whether it can translate its electoral strength into actual political power.
Yet interpreting this result solely as an ideological victory for the radical right would leave the picture incomplete. The deepening loss of confidence in the established parties has also played a significant role in the AfD’s rise. Not everyone who votes for the party necessarily holds hard-line ideological views on immigration, the European Union, or Russia. Some voters are turning to the AfD in response to the rising cost of living, uncertainty about the economic future, immigration, the consequences of the war in Ukraine, and a broader distrust of political institutions. The party has succeeded in bringing these disparate concerns together within a single political narrative and presenting itself as an alternative to the existing political establishment.
From Opposition to Government: A Difficult Test
One of the AfD’s greatest advantages is also its greatest challenge.
Being in opposition makes it easier to offer simple answers to complex problems: reduce immigration, tighten asylum rules, end support for Ukraine, and restore energy ties with Russia. Governing, however, requires answers to far more difficult questions: How will Germany address its labor shortage? How will relations with the European Union be managed? How will the country’s security be protected? And how can immigration policies be implemented without violating the Constitution or international law?
Constitutional and Legal Constraints
This is precisely where political reality comes into play.
Some of the party’s proposals on asylum, citizenship, and deportation could directly conflict with Germany’s constitutional order and European law. Even when a party wins an electoral majority, it cannot rewrite all the rules of the state as it pleases. In Germany, power is divided among the government, parliament, the courts, and the federal states. European law and international agreements impose additional constraints on immigration and asylum policies. The AfD would therefore encounter serious legal and institutional obstacles if it attempted to implement its election platform in full.
Immigration Policy and Economic Reality
The problem, however, is not limited to the law. There are also economic realities to consider.
Germany faces serious labor and skilled-worker shortages across many sectors. These challenges are compounded by an aging population, high energy costs, and the transformation of German industry. Policies that sharply restrict immigration or exclude foreign workers may generate political support in the short term, but they could impose substantial economic costs over the longer term. Major German companies must be able to find the skilled workers they need. A significant decline in employment-based immigration could increase pressure on businesses and weaken Germany’s competitiveness.
This does not mean that public concerns about immigration are insignificant. On the contrary, the failure of the established parties to provide adequate answers to certain problems involving irregular migration, integration, and security has helped the AfD expand its electoral base. This presents Germany’s centrist parties with a difficult dilemma:
If they ignore concerns about immigration, they may lose even more voters to the AfD; if they fully embrace the AfD’s rhetoric, they may push the center of German politics even further to the right.
The AfD’s Policies on Russia and Europe
The AfD’s foreign-policy approach shows that the issue extends far beyond Germany itself.
The party’s positions on Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union could directly affect the broader balance of power in Europe. Its support for reducing assistance to Ukraine and improving relations with Russia differs sharply from Berlin’s current policy. Any major change in German foreign policy could also create tensions with Eastern European countries that regard Russia as a direct security threat.
Europe’s Changing Political Balance
European capitals have therefore reacted to the AfD’s rise in very different ways. While centrist parties view the party’s advance as a risk to Europe’s political cohesion, some nationalist and populist movements see the result as an opportunity for their own political causes. These contrasting reactions demonstrate that the debate has moved beyond Germany’s borders and become part of a wider political struggle over Europe’s future.
The Political Obstacle Facing the AfD
It would nevertheless be inaccurate to suggest that the AfD now has a clear path to power. Germany’s traditional parties have maintained a “firewall” by refusing to enter coalitions with it. As a result, the AfD may struggle to form a government even when it wins elections in individual states.
Political isolation, however, has another consequence: The larger the AfD becomes, the more difficult it is to ignore.
Changing Politics Without Entering Government
The party can reshape German politics even without entering government. If conservative parties harden their policies on immigration and security, if other parties give greater attention to the issues raised by the AfD to avoid losing voters, and if the language of the political center shifts to the right, the AfD may be considered highly successful even without taking office.
The central question, therefore, is no longer simply: “Can the AfD govern Germany?”
It is also:
Can the AfD change Germany’s political direction?
Judging by the current landscape, it has already succeeded in doing so to some extent.
Winning Elections and Governing the State
There is, however, a profound difference between winning a large share of the vote and governing a country. Forming a government requires workable economic policies, the management of foreign relations, the preservation of alliances within Europe, and respect for constitutional limits. The hard-edged and simplistic slogans that mobilize voters may prove far less effective when confronted with the much more complicated realities of governing.
German Politics Shifts to the Right
The AfD’s rise therefore does not necessarily mean that Germany will soon be governed by the far right. It does, however, point to a deeper transformation:
The center of gravity in German politics is gradually shifting to the right, forcing the traditional parties to place issues they once regarded as marginal at the center of political debate.
In the long term, this may prove to be the most important consequence.
Even if the AfD remains outside government, it can change the framework within which immigration, security, energy, Russia, and the European Union are debated. The political struggle in Germany is therefore no longer merely about “who will govern the country?”
The real battle now centers on a different question:
Who will define Germany’s political agenda and determine the boundaries of what is considered politically normal?
If this trend continues, the AfD could become one of the central forces in German politics ahead of the 2029 federal election. Its real success, however, will not be measured solely by its share of the vote. The decisive test will be whether it can transform voter anger into a viable program of government.
Because criticizing the state from the opposition benches and actually governing it are separated by a far greater distance than election results might suggest.
