Ahmet Karabay
Since Turkey began stirring up trouble in Syria under the “Strategic Depth” doctrine, neither our neighbor nor the people living in Anatolia have found peace. The war in Syria entered a new phase when terrorist groups, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), left Idlib and took control of Aleppo.
Certain dates are unforgettable. Just as some dates are critical for individuals, they hold significant importance for nations and countries. The attack launched by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, under the name “Al-Aqsa Flood Operation,” was one of these pivotal dates for the Middle East.
After six years of relative calm, the Syrian civil war flared up again on November 27, and by November 30, Aleppo had once again broken away from the Damascus government. The takeover of Aleppo by the Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of terrorist groups and Turkey-backed forces, marked the beginning of a new phase in the Syrian civil war.
The Astana Protocol, signed by Russia, Iran, and Turkey, despite being repeatedly violated, remains in effect and assigns certain obligations to each party. One of Turkey’s responsibilities is to separate moderate armed opposition from terrorists in the Idlib region.
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), designated as a terrorist organization by both the United Nations and Turkey, controls the area around Idlib in western Syria, just east of Hatay’s Reyhanlı district. In practice, Turkey is responsible for overseeing this area.
HTS seized Aleppo after emerging from Idlib and capturing villages along the way, coinciding with a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, fell under their control.
Syria has long been a significant obstacle for Israel. Although President Bashar al-Assad, who controls 65% of the country, did not lose territory, he suffered a major blow to morale and motivation. Despite Russia’s focus on the war in Ukraine and Iran’s diminished ability to act, Assad remains Syria’s official representative in the eyes of the United Nations.
THE REAL BLOODY WARS ARE JUST BEGINNING
Those who think this is an exaggerated statement should take note. The real struggle for dominance in Syria is only beginning. What has happened since 2011 can be seen as mere sparring among states and factions with interests in Syria.
Starting from November 30, Syria entered a new phase of division. Paramilitary groups and terrorist organizations, backed by foreign powers, will now scramble to gain the largest share of control, aiming to strengthen their bargaining power in any future ceasefire or peace negotiations.
The planners behind these moves care little for civilian casualties. Their primary concern is the problems caused by refugees gathering at the borders of other countries. Over two million people live in the 500-kilometer Idlib region controlled by HTS.
After an attack by Iran or Russia, the fate of civilians struggling to survive in this area will be uncertain. Questions about how many will flee toward Reyhanlı and other areas are already being asked.
CONTRADICTORY STATEMENTS FROM TURKEY
The capture of Aleppo by forces led by HTS has sparked varying reactions in Turkey. Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli passionately declared, “Aleppo is thoroughly Turkish and Muslim. This is not just our claim; history and geography support it.”
Statements like Bahçeli’s have had mixed consequences in foreign policy. Iranian and Russian media held Turkey responsible for the developments in Syria. Iranian media accused President Erdoğan of collaborating with Israel to topple Assad, even dubbing him “Benyamin Erdoğan” in headlines like “Benyamin Erdoğan Against Syria.”
Russia responded more officially. After Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan claimed the events in Syria were not due to foreign interventions, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova countered, “Such bold actions would not be possible without encouragement and comprehensive support from external forces.”
CELEBRATIONS OVER ALEPPO SIMILAR TO HAMAS’ OCTOBER 7 CELEBRATIONS
The government, through pro-regime journalists, tried to present the capture of Aleppo as a victory for domestic political gain. However, this celebration may be short-lived. Just as Hamas initially celebrated its attack on Israel, those cheering for Aleppo’s takeover may soon face disappointment. The de facto division of Syria primarily benefits Israel and its unwavering ally, the United States.
The establishment of a Kurdish region in Syria, similar to the one in northern Iraq, would serve Israel’s interests. Israel, seeking to avoid a strong state in the region, will see the developments in Syria as a major victory.
Those celebrating Aleppo today may find themselves lamenting the loss of Diyarbakır in the future. Once Syria is divided, there is little doubt that the U.S. and Israel will do everything in their power to strengthen the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled regions, creating a structure stronger than the Kurdish region in northern Iraq.
President Erdoğan met with Russian President Putin recently. Unlike previous meetings, where both sides issued similar statements, this time, the announcements were notably different. A similar scenario played out after Erdoğan’s meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani, who referred to recent developments in Syria as a “Zionist plot.”
Although Iran is unlikely to provide much assistance to Syria due to its current situation, it has sent one of its most notorious generals, Javad Ghaffari, known as the “Butcher of Aleppo,” to the region. Iraqi Shiite forces are also expected to play a more prominent role than Iran in the near future.
While Turkey may have played a role in the Aleppo offensive to strengthen its position before a potential shift in U.S. leadership, the long-term consequences of this bloody conflict remain unpredictable.
