M. Ahmet Karabay
The President of Erdogan of Turkey is preoccupying the country’s agenda with different topics. However, significant developments are taking place just beyond our 911-kilometer Syrian border. While some circles in Turkey celebrated after Bashar al-Assad fled his country on December 8, 2024, those who understood the real dynamics behind the scenes emphasized early on that the situation was not as it seemed.
Two forces will shape Syria’s future in the coming period. One of them will undoubtedly be the new U.S. President, Donald Trump. Instead of directly stating who the other force will be, let me illustrate it with a response from Nasreddin Hodja to children making requests:
“Whoever pays the piper calls the tune.”
We have already seen the first signs of this. Turkey recently offered assistance in modernizing and training the Syrian army. However, this proposal was rejected in favor of a more attractive offer from an unnamed Gulf country. How this will unfold over time remains uncertain.
The new Syrian administration appears to want to maintain equal distance from all actors. However, the key factor in determining its direction will be securing the financial resources it desperately needs.
Trump’s Call to Netanyahu for ‘Fighting a Common Enemy’
Before returning to this topic, I want to highlight a diplomatic move by Trump, one of the two forces shaping Syria’s course. U.S. President Trump has invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington.
Netanyahu will be the first foreign leader hosted by Trump at the White House on February 4. The invitation letter was even made public by Israel—likely to instill fear in certain circles. In the letter, Trump states: “I look forward to discussing our efforts to counter our common enemies.”
Two major topics will be on the agenda: Gaza and Syria. Trump recently outlined his plan for Gaza. He proposed evacuating Palestinian territories within Israel and relocating their inhabitants to Jordan and Egypt.
Readers of this column may recall that even before Trump made a single statement about Gaza, I wrote on December 17, 2024: “Gaza has become Israeli territory. A new homeland for Palestinians has been designated: Jordan.”
Following Trump’s statement, Egypt and Jordan declared that such a move would never be accepted. Similar reactions came from other regional countries. However, those making these objections likely understand their limited influence. Given that U.S. aid sustains both Egypt and Jordan, the issue is merely a matter of time.
Looking at Israel’s development since its official establishment on May 14, 1948, it becomes clear that Gaza and the West Bank will not be sustained within Israeli borders.
Reconciling Erdoğan and Netanyahu
Now, let’s turn to the other topic of the February 4 White House meeting. The Syrian issue is likely to be even more complex and challenging than the future of Gaza and the West Bank. If the Trump-Netanyahu meeting results in a reconciliation between Erdoğan and Netanyahu, it should not come as a surprise.
If you are wondering “Where did that come from?”, let me take you back in time. Recall that after the May 31, 2010, Mavi Marmara raid, where nine Turkish citizens lost their lives, relations between Turkey and Israel had severed. At that time, Erdoğan was making strong statements against Israel, just as he has during the recent attacks on Gaza.
During his official visit to Israel, then-U.S. President Barack Obama emphasized the importance of mending ties between Turkey and Israel for regional peace and security. On March 23, 2013, while in Israel, Obama called Prime Minister Erdoğan, addressing him as “My friend Recep!” and then passed the phone to Netanyahu.
Here’s how the conversation unfolded, as recounted in Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren’s book “Ally”:
“Obama and Netanyahu sat across from each other at a small table with a phone between them. Obama said, ‘My friend Recep.’ Netanyahu read from a prepared statement that we all had copies of. He expressed regret for any mistakes made by the Israeli army, offered compensation, proposed restoring diplomatic relations, and sought the lifting of war crime accusations.
Through a translator, Erdoğan responded that his remarks on Zionism had been taken out of context and that he harbored no hostility toward Israel. He accepted the apology. Obama and Netanyahu ended the call. Everyone in the room relaxed. There were high-fives and embraces.”
Will there be a similar phone call during the February 4 Trump-Netanyahu meeting? I don’t know. However, there is little doubt that the topic of improving relations with Erdoğan will be discussed. If Trump believes that U.S.-Turkey relations should be restored at this stage, he will undoubtedly address the issue in a manner quite different from Obama’s diplomatic approach.
The Task Assigned by the West to Turkey and the Kurds
After the Syrian civil war broke out, millions of refugees flooded into Turkey, and measures had to be taken to prevent them from reaching Europe. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor and de facto leader of the European Union, engaged in shuttle diplomacy with Turkey.
She held a series of meetings with then-Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and President Erdoğan. As a result, Turkey agreed to contain the refugees in exchange for financial aid from the EU. In other words, Turkey was assigned the role of a “guardian.” Since then, entry from Turkey’s eastern borders has been open, while exits to the West have been restricted.
Meanwhile, ISIS militants, who plunged Iraq and Syria into chaos, were defeated with support from the U.S. and some Western countries, primarily by Syrian Kurdish forces. Not only were they stopped, but many were also captured and imprisoned in areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria.
Western countries have not forgotten the SDF’s heroic efforts during a difficult period, and they maintain great sympathy for the Kurds. This is why they support the existence of a Kurdish region east of the Euphrates.
Turkey’s Proposal: “Let Us Guard ISIS Prisoners”
The SDF justifies its continued existence by pointing to the 20,000 ISIS prisoners it holds. Meanwhile, Turkey, in its bid to eliminate the SDF, has proposed to the U.S.: “Let us guard the ISIS prisons.”
There are currently 12 prisons holding ISIS members in the SDF-controlled region. Near these prisons, camps house the families of ISIS militants. In total, approximately 80,000 people are involved.
Turkey’s proposal has not been well received by Western countries. They fear this would lead to a permanent Turkish military presence in Syria.
At present, the West has assigned the same task to both Turkey and Syrian Kurds. It remains unclear how Trump will approach this issue. However, given Turkey’s bargaining power, Trump could very well say, “Let Turkey take over the prisons.”
With Trump, no possibility can be entirely ruled out.
Syria’s uncertainties are greater than ever. The risks have only increased compared to before.
