Let me begin by sharing an anecdote that I consider critical to keep in mind when analyzing Syria-centered agendas and the future of Erdoğan’s regime.
It was during the most heated days of the Gezi Park protests. Concerned about the rising violence, some prominent figures asked then-Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan to ease the tensions. Among these “concerned individuals” were then-President Abdullah Gül and Bülent Arınç. However, Erdoğan, instead of calming the situation, escalated tensions with provocative statements.
According to reports from the political corridors in Ankara, Erdoğan, while assessing the situation with his close aides, used an expression that he would later repeat in other events: “If Assad managed to stay in power in Syria, I can certainly succeed as well. Crush them!”
And that’s precisely what happened. The Gezi protests were suppressed through police violence.
Years later, I recall this anecdote for two reasons:
First, Assad is now gone! Despite all his oppression and cruelty, the Assad regime also came to an end. Ultimately, tyranny doesn’t prevail. Every dictator leaves behind palaces and prisons and eventually departs.
Second, Erdoğan, whose mentality is “crush them,” can easily provoke bloody incidents the moment he feels insecure. In my opinion, July 15, 2016, was one such moment. Losing power due to corruption and oppressive policies, Erdoğan entered into various deals to secure his position. At one point, he declared himself the “prosecutor” of the Ergenekon trials but later struck a deal with Ergenekon defendants, freeing them from prison.
He formed a close alliance with Perinçek. The Perinçekist-nationalist cadres within the Turkish Armed Forces handled the internal military side of July 15.
One of the ideologues of Eurasianism, Alexander Dugin, visited Ankara two days before the coup attempt. He first met with Perinçek and then headed to the Presidential Palace. He also met with Melih Gökçek, then mayor of Ankara, and issued a warning about “movement within the Turkish military.”
DUGIN’S ANGER
Alexander Dugin, who frequently appeared in pro-government media and attended AKP’s parliamentary group meetings as an “honored guest” after July 15, is back in the spotlight. Following the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime, Dugin made a series of statements on his X (formerly Twitter) account, openly threatening Erdoğan.
Dugin claimed that developments in Syria would work against Turkey and threatened Erdoğan over July 15, saying, “We helped you a lot.” Accusing Erdoğan of “betraying Russia,” he added: “This is it. From now on, you will repent. We will do things we didn’t do before, and you will regret it. But it will be too late.”
Although Dugin later softened his tone, his threatening tweets had already gone viral on social media, shared millions of times. Even his toned-down tweets contained threats: “Russia will not harm Turkey. Absolutely not. But after such betrayal, it would be hard to expect Russia to come to Turkey’s aid in case of problems. And problems will come from time to time.”
The government’s supporters have reacted in two ways: some tried to downplay Dugin’s importance, while others attempted to rebuke him. However, Dugin’s remarks should not be dismissed lightly.
True, Dugin may not be “Putin’s brain,” as some claim. But, as the saying goes, “The village chief gets the village fool to say his message.” So, it’s worth asking: who prompted Dugin to say these things, and why?
While exploring this question, it’s useful to look at what’s being discussed in Washington, D.C.
AN INTRIGUING RUMOR FROM WASHINGTON
One of Washington’s best-known Turkey experts, Ömer Taşpınar, shared an intriguing rumor in a program with Ruşen Çakır. Taşpınar, who also teaches at the U.S. National War College, stated:
“In my opinion, Erdoğan fears Putin more than anyone else. Russia plays dirty and has more room for maneuver over Turkey. From what I’ve heard, Putin has numerous files that could put Erdoğan in a difficult position if he wanted to. These range from corruption to the true face of July 15.”
U.S. INTELLIGENCE ALSO MONITORED EVERYTHING
It’s not just the Russians who know what Erdoğan and his allies did on July 15. The U.S., known for its extensive intelligence network, also kept close watch. In addition to CIA and military units in Turkey, there were “special circumstances” that coincided with the July 15 period.
I explained the details in this video.
Five days before the coup attempt, the U.S. Air Force requested permission to conduct intelligence flights along Turkey’s Syrian border. According to Turkish Air Force records, two AWACS planes arrived at Incirlik Air Base and conducted intelligence flights over Turkey from July 10 to 16. These planes, known for their extensive monitoring capabilities, departed shortly after.
It’s not hard to guess that the U.S. has radar records, information about aircraft using Turkish airspace, and data on the mysterious helicopters in Marmaris linked to July 15.
CIA DIRECTOR’S “SO-CALLED COUP” DESCRIPTION
Moreover, then-CIA Director Mike Pompeo referred to the July 15 coup attempt as a “purported” coup in his memoir, putting the word “coup” in quotation marks to imply skepticism. Considering the pressure from Turkey to acknowledge it as a genuine coup, his word choice speaks volumes.
IRAN OCCASIONALLY BRANDISHES A STICK
Let’s also turn to Iran. Erdoğan often refers to Tehran as his “second home,” yet discordant statements from there are noteworthy. Both Iran and its staunch supporters in Turkey occasionally remind Erdoğan of the support they provided on July 15, subtly threatening him.
One of the most prominent pro-Iran figures in Turkey, Nurettin Şirin, claimed in a television program that Qasem Soleimani, the late Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander, played a key role in preventing the July 15 coup. Şirin stated, “President Erdoğan knows what Soleimani did for Turkey on July 15.”
Whenever there’s even a slight disagreement between Ankara and Tehran, similar statements emerge from Iranian media or politicians.
WHAT DID THE HEAD OF BRITISH INTELLIGENCE MEAN?
The most striking aspect of this topic is undoubtedly the UK’s stance. This was detailed by journalist Murat Yetkin, who is known for his proximity to the intelligence world.
On the evening of July 15, 2016, Richard Moore, who is now the head of MI6 but was then the British Ambassador to Turkey, asked Yetkin a cryptic question during a reception in Istanbul: “What are your soldiers up to?”
Hours later, the coup attempt began.
EVERYONE KNEW—EXCEPT THE PEOPLE
While the Turkish people were lulled to sleep with lies like “My brother-in-law called me,” the world’s top intelligence agencies were fully aware of the events unfolding. They didn’t just watch—they capitalized on this valuable intelligence to their advantage.
For instance, the billions Turkey paid for the Russian S-400 air defense system came from exploiting such vulnerabilities. Soon enough, we’ll learn what other concessions Erdoğan was forced to make to Iran, the UK, the U.S., or Germany based on the incriminating information they hold.
When you’re falling, everyone suddenly shows their cards!
