Ahmet Karabay
The Middle East, throughout its known history, has never been a region of tranquility. Human history records the same, and the history of religions recounts humanity’s bloodstained narratives in different forms. The recent period that began after Bashar al-Assad fled his country on December 8th has unveiled certain overlooked realities.
What has happened in Syria is not just the collapse of a dictator or the takeover of the state by the terrorist organization HTS and its supporters. Assad’s departure was the result of Iran’s defeat, Russia withdrawing from Syria, and the disbandment of Hezbollah. However, what I am trying to highlight is something different. All these developments did not happen overnight; they were meticulously orchestrated, like intricate lacework.
Let us rewind to the founding years of the AK Party and share an anecdote from that era to better understand the present. This will help clarify my points more effectively.
The “Green Belt” Project and Western Support
During the Cold War, to contain the Soviet Union, the Western world embarked on the famous “Green Belt” project. Based on the notion that communism rejected religion, the West began to support initiatives that nurtured religious sentiments in the region.
By the time the Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s, it became apparent that Islamist movements had gained significant power in the region and were becoming alternatives to established regimes. Realizing this, the West decided to work with political Islamists.
If you recall, Turkey’s Welfare Party, under Necmettin Erbakan, was rapidly gaining votes during this period. A delegation comprising representatives from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel approached Erbakan. Their visit came with certain opportunities and expectations.
There was much speculation about the delegation’s activities, akin to urban legends, until Abdurrahman Dilipak, an influential Islamist writer, brought it back to the public’s attention. Dilipak’s account resurfaced when Abdurrahim Karslı, the founder of the Central Party, narrated the delegation’s meetings in detail on November 27, 2014, during Cem Özer’s program on Artı 1 TV (starting at 49:40).
For those who don’t want to watch, here’s a brief summary.
The Delegation’s Three Offers and Three Expectations
In the early 1990s, the delegation approached Erbakan with three offers:
- “We will help you come to power.”
- “We will neutralize those who could pose problems for you while in power.”
- “We will provide you with the financial support you need.”
When Erbakan asked what they expected in return, they outlined three demands:
- “You will enhance Israel’s security and remove obstacles in its path.”
- “You will facilitate the redrawing of borders under the Greater Middle East Project.”
- “You will assist in reinterpreting Islam.”
Erbakan rejected the proposal outright. The delegation then approached Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu, who had recently left the MHP to establish the BBP and was quickly rising as a nationalist-Islamist leader. Yazıcıoğlu also declined, stating, “I cannot be part of such cooperation.”
It was during this time that Tayyip Erdoğan and Abdullah Gül, rising stars within the Welfare Party, learned about the delegation’s visit to Erbakan. They somehow made contact with the delegation, which then presented the same offer to Erdoğan and Gül.
This time, the response was different. Erdoğan and Gül accepted the offer. What followed is well known: while Erdoğan and Gül’s political careers soared, Erbakan’s influence diminished rapidly. Despite Erbakan’s repeated claims that “the AKP is a product of Zionism,” his voice was largely unheard.
The AK Party, propelled by support from Europe’s northernmost countries and beyond the Atlantic, created a whirlwind in the country. Even those close to Erbakan began dismissing his criticisms of Erdoğan as personal jealousy.
The Salafism-Shiism Dichotomy
Looking at Erdoğan’s three commitments today, the situation becomes clearer. Despite occasionally appearing to take a hard stance against Israel, Erdoğan has consistently safeguarded and supported the “southern country.” Even during the critical period following the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, Turkey ensured the uninterrupted delivery of essential supplies to Israel.
The collapse of Syria, the subjugation of Iran, and the elimination of Hezbollah’s leadership in Lebanon were all steps aligned with the first commitment. The redrawing of borders under the Greater Middle East Project is progressing steadily.
Now, we come to the third commitment: the reinterpretation of Islam. While it may not seem as immediate as the other two, its profound nature means its impact will unfold over a longer period.
The AK Party’s tenure, marked by its flaws, has driven Turkish society toward religious disenchantment. Outwardly, society may appear more religious, but this religiosity is hollow. On June 14, 2024, I wrote about the spread of deism among students in Imam Hatip schools, illustrating the hollowing out of faith. Similar dynamics seem to be at play in other Islamic countries, albeit in different forms.
The sharp divide between Shiism and Salafism has long fueled bloodshed in the Middle East. With Iran now seemingly sidelined, Salafism, standing exposed, is under scrutiny.
Recently, Prof. Mümtazer Türköne discussed the evolving perception of Salafism through the lens of Jolani/Ahmet al-Sharaa on his YouTube channel, Fikir Coğrafyası. While Türköne’s optimistic portrayal of Jolani may be debatable, his observations on the restructuring of religious perception are noteworthy.
The religious perspectives of mainstream Islam, including Sunni interpretations, are being subtly refined without much societal awareness. If I were to claim that the forces keeping Erdoğan and his team in power are steering religion toward new horizons, it might provoke backlash. Let me phrase it differently: we are entering a period where we will see more diverse interpretations of Islam.
