Necip F. Bahadir
The quality of Turkish democracy is debatable, especially within the context of the opposition’s role. And it should be debated… Unfortunately, the 100-year-old ‘republic’ was not crowned with democracy. The state of Turkish democracy, particularly as seen through the opposition’s struggles, is no different from the analogy, “Our daughter is very virtuous, but a little pregnant!” The flaws are countless. Even those who praise democracy, including members of the opposition, do not shy away from calling it ‘a little pregnant.’
Countries with underdeveloped democracies are under the occupation of their ‘regimes.’ Turkey has witnessed this reality. The 22-year-long AKP rule has ruined democracy. Like a Mongol invasion, the AKP both turned the system upside down and plundered the country. It should not be forgotten that, despite everything, it could only garner the votes of about half of the electorate.
The remaining 50% shows the existence of ‘hope.’ Democracy will never completely disappear from these lands. However, it may be interrupted, as it was during coup periods. Even though the AKP emerged from the ballot box, it has left a mark similar to those coup periods. It could not become a democratic and libertarian government. When history recounts the ‘AKP era,’ it will particularly note that democracy and freedoms were interrupted.
In countries east of Anatolia, leaders like Erdoğan receive over 90% of the vote. Despite Erdoğan shutting down all opposition channels, controlling all the avenues, and mobilizing state resources in his favor, the vote he could obtain was just slightly over 50%… It can be easily said that, if the fraud is subtracted, he falls below the bar.
The end of the road for the AKP; there’s nothing beyond this point. Today, it has dropped to the 20% range. Turkish history is full of examples where defeats could not be prevented. What Erdoğan is experiencing is a complete defeat… The Titanic hit the iceberg on March 31st and is slowly sinking. When the sun sets, the small men cast long shadows on the ground. Just like the shadow men of the AKP…
The biggest achievement of Turkish democracy is the ‘ballot box.’ The ballot box has always been an exit and has provided solutions during the most difficult times, in crises, and chaos. Turkey’s election ballot box is unlike Egypt’s or Syria’s… Although the AKP government has worn out the ‘ballot box,’ it has not been able to eliminate the ballot box’s function as an ‘exit.’ Turkey has seen many coups and authoritarian leaders, but none could make the ballot box ‘meaningless and dysfunctional.’ The ballot box has always continued to be a ‘hope.’
Even the generals of September 12th, the coup plotters of May 27th, or war hero İsmet İnönü could not control the ballot box, so how can Erdoğan? A handful of believers and the money he distributed brought him this far… There’s nothing beyond this point.
The country is again in great despair… The government has collapsed in every area. It has fallen short of all its claims. Again, ‘all hopes’ are tied to the ballot box. And the ballot box is on the horizon. The opposition has begun to intensify its ‘early election’ messages. An early election is like toothpaste coming out of a tube; once it starts being discussed, there’s no going back. The toothpaste is out… The AKP and MHP bloc will resist for a while to find the most suitable time for an election. Do I need to remind you that the MHP is the weak link?
CHP is trailing behind even ‘societal opposition.’ It is the opposition’s duty to place the ballot box in front of the people. The main opposition, CHP, is rightly making all its calculations based on an early election after March 31st… Despite this, it must be said that the main opposition has lagged far behind ‘societal opposition’ in terms of tone and politics. The opposition to the government or the AK Party on the streets is far ahead of the CHP… If this wind does not turn into a decision for an early election, it will sweep away the CHP as well.
It has not gone unnoticed that CHP leader Özgür Özel brings up the topic of ‘early elections’ on every platform. Yes, but it’s not enough… His tone is somewhat cautious and timid. A leader of the opposition cannot say, “Let Erdoğan put the ballot box in the spring of 2026, I have no doubt we can defeat Erdoğan…” Erdoğan will not set the ballot box; the CHP, with societal opposition behind it, will force the government into an early election and leave Erdoğan with no choice but to face the ballot.
It is evident that the opposition does not have enough seats in Parliament for a possible early election decision, as the AKP and MHP have the majority. That parliamentary picture has lost its legitimacy. On March 31st, the people did not give a vote of confidence to Erdoğan and Parliament, and they changed the picture. They did not stand behind their vote on May 14th. A Parliament that has lost the people’s support cannot stand against the winds of an election. While the people want an election, for their representatives to resist is against the spirit of democracy.
What is the meaning of giving a ‘green light’ to Erdoğan’s candidacy? It is the opposition that will force both the AKP and the MHP into an election. And since the opposition is led by the CHP, it is difficult to understand why Özel adopts an attitude of waiting for an ‘early election favor’ from Erdoğan. Is it possible not to find this ‘passive and submissive tone’ strange when, instead, he could be pressuring the government with loud calls for an early election, riding the wave of societal opposition? If he’s going to wait for the ballot box from Erdoğan, woe to that CHP…
I am, of course, aware that the CHP has its internal problems. The drum is on one person’s shoulder, while the stick is in someone else’s hand. And there are those who sing songs from outside as well. The party appears scattered and disorganized. I hope that after the rules convention, it will position itself for an early election. History has given the CHP an opportunity and a chance after decades. I don’t think they will waste it with internal fights. Perhaps Özel’s cautious tone is due to this careful stance.
It’s clear that Özel is eager to defeat Erdoğan. But what’s with giving the green light to his candidacy again? Erdoğan can create another ‘de facto situation,’ as he did before, despite the constitution and laws. Is it right for the opposition to approve of this? It’s impossible to agree with Özel’s following words: “If the Parliament renews the elections with 360 deputies, Erdoğan has the right to be a candidate one last time. I see it as healthy for Erdoğan to be a candidate and for this process to be completed by defeating him.”
Is Erdoğan entitled to ‘unlimited’ candidacy? If he had consulted with the CHP’s legal experts before making this statement, he would not have spoken, could not have spoken, like this. Isn’t it too much ‘trickery and deceit’ for the constitution and laws? Does Erdoğan have the right to be a candidate as many times as he wishes? Doesn’t the constitution impose a limitation? If so, what is the meaning of the provision that says ‘He cannot be elected more than two terms’? Özel should base his calculations on an election without Erdoğan.
Apolitical ‘jurists’ say that Erdoğan cannot be a candidate, and that his previous candidacy was also ‘problematic.’ Are they wrong? The YSK may decide otherwise. Who appointed the members of the YSK? Today, is there any difference between the YSK or any other judiciary institution and an AKP subsidiary? Can the YSK make a decision contrary to Erdoğan’s wishes?
The decision to rerun the election in Istanbul is clear… The YSK can make a decision ‘in favor of candidacy’ despite the constitution. That is their problem. They will pay the price when the time comes. In democracies, ‘violating the constitution’ is the gravest crime. A party of opposition like the CHP cannot pave the way for this. That is why I object to Özgür Özel’s words.
The damage caused by the AKP cannot be repaired with one or two elections. They have polluted everything so much that the country cannot be cleaned with just a few elections. But we must start somewhere. And that place is not far… Both politics and society are ready for days without the AKP… The only issue now is to bring that ballot box before the people… And all eyes are on the opposition, the CHP…
