Ahmet Karabay
The leader of the AK Party and President Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has been executing his post-2024 local election plan flawlessly. After suffering a major defeat at the ballot box, he tried to brush it off with talks of “normalization.” Once he achieved the desired political atmosphere, he returned to his original plan. The opposition has been pushed into endless discussions about who their candidate will be instead of focusing on the country’s real issues. Meanwhile, the ruling party does not even have candidacy on its agenda.
Erdoğan and his ally, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, repeatedly state that elections will be held on time. As for Erdoğan’s candidacy, two signals stand out: Bahçeli’s declaration, “Our candidate is Erdoğan!” and Erdoğan’s response at the AK Party’s Şanlıurfa provincial congress on January 11, when singer İbrahim Tatlıses asked him, “Are you in or out?” and he replied, “If you’re in, I’m in!”
Ahead of the May 14, 2023 elections, the opposition delayed announcing its candidate, so this time, the opposite approach is being taken. Today, CHP is rushing to decide on a candidate. Yet, just a few months ago, CHP leader Özgür Özel said of Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, “We have two strikers.”
Mansur Yavaş Was the Main Course at the Dinner
So what changed in just a few months for the party to now push one of its “strikers” out of the field? Discussions were held within the CHP Party Assembly about candidate selection. Later, Özel announced, “We talked with İmamoğlu and Yavaş and reached an agreement,” adding that a primary election would be held to determine the candidate.
Observers immediately noted that “a primary election means eliminating Mansur Yavaş, who does not come from a CHP background.” Indeed, Yavaş responded, “I think it’s too early for a primary,” signaling that he would not participate.
Clearly, there was no real agreement. Jokingly, some on social media quipped, “At that dinner, they tried to eat Mansur Yavaş!” And it seems they were right.
Even while explaining the candidate selection process, Özgür Özel hinted that the candidate had already been chosen. If that’s the case, why go through the motions of announcing a process?
If we recall the debates about “who is the real boss” at the CHP’s 38th Congress in November 2023, it becomes evident that Özgür Özel’s primary mission is to make Ekrem İmamoğlu the presidential candidate.
All public opinion polls show that the opposition has two strong candidates against Erdoğan: İmamoğlu and Yavaş. Özel’s job should have been to keep both under the party’s umbrella until the Supreme Election Council announced the election calendar.
The rush to declare a candidate is meant to shield İmamoğlu from ongoing investigations and lawsuits. The assumption is that the international reaction to banning a presidential candidate from politics would be much stronger than banning a mayor.
However, history shows that authoritarian regimes do not shape their domestic policies based on international pressure. As I’ve written many times before, the West would always prefer a controllable Erdoğan over a democratic alternative. Expecting strong Western backlash against Erdoğan for banning his opponent is naïve.
Even CHP Voters Would Support a Victimized Mansur Yavaş
Given the current trajectory, it’s clear that CHP’s candidate will be İmamoğlu. But if polls indicate that Yavaş would receive more votes than İmamoğlu, wouldn’t he then be the one being victimized? In that case, wouldn’t opposition voters—and even CHP supporters—rally behind Yavaş?
Even if the CHP leadership tells Yavaş, “Stand aside, our candidate is someone else,” he cannot simply walk away. Yavaş won the 2019 election with 50.93% of the vote and, despite government obstacles, increased his share to 60.51% in the March 2024 election. Recent polls suggest he has a better chance of winning than both İmamoğlu and Erdoğan.
This indicates that society is placing a responsibility on Yavaş. In this context, does he have the right to say, “I refuse to take on this responsibility”?
Many political strategists argue that Erdoğan needs a fierce opponent to fight him head-to-head. Despite these discussions, the fact that Yavaş remains the most popular opposition figure among the public sends another strong message.
One more crucial point: Even though MHP leader Bahçeli has endorsed Erdoğan, a significant number of MHP voters would still support Yavaş.
When withdrawing from the primary race, Yavaş stated that the public’s priority is not the CHP’s candidate selection process but rather the economy and the justice system. Putting aside his analysis, the real question remains: Can a candidate chosen solely by the CHP actually win the presidency?
No step should be taken without a clear answer to this question. A CHP candidate, selected without considering the broader opposition, will have a predictable vote share. To win, the opposition must choose a candidate who can appeal to conservatives, nationalists, democrats, liberals, Atatürkists, and leftists alike.
Looking at the Election Landscape Again
On the opposition front:
- Yeniden Refah Party leader Fatih Erbakan has declared his candidacy.
- DEVA Party leader Ali Babacan and DP leader Gültekin Uysal have also announced their candidacies.
- Additionally, the DEM Party could nominate Selahattin Demirtaş.
This means the election is already heading to a second round. The first round will likely feature Erbakan, Babacan, Uysal, Demirtaş, İmamoğlu, Yavaş, and Erdoğan.
I’d like to remind you of a poll by Betimar, one of the most accurate polling firms in the last election cycle. In early February, they published a survey showing that Yavaş was 12% ahead of İmamoğlu in voter support.
But more importantly, respondents were asked about Turkey’s biggest problems. The answers were:
- 42.9% said the economy
- 23.5% said inflation
Since these are essentially the same issue, 66.4% of voters prioritize economic problems.
In such an environment, the opposition should be surging. The main opposition party should be experiencing a boom in support. But here’s the real issue—when asked, “Which party can solve these problems?”:
- 30.8% said “No party can solve them.”
- 16.8% said “CHP can solve them.”
- 22.7% said “AK Party can solve them.”
For those who dismiss polls by saying, “There’s no election right now, so these numbers don’t matter,” consider this:
Once the election period begins, Erdoğan will likely secure foreign loans at 15-20% interest, crank up the printing presses, distribute easy credit to businesses, and grant retirees an additional 30-40% raise.
In such a scenario, who do you think would emerge victorious at the ballot box?
