On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in a speech, “If NATO countries allow weapons supplied to Ukraine to be used inside Russia, it means they are at war with Russia.” Following this, the French newspaper Le Monde published an article describing Western hesitations about allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russia.
While Le Monde’s analysis reflects the general approach of European countries, Putin’s rhetoric highlights Russia’s “reckless” stance. Unlike Washington and London, European leaders believe Ukraine’s military has made “a few mistakes.” Notably, Ukraine’s operations in the Kursk region caused surprise in EU countries, leading them to demand a clearer military strategy from Ukraine.
According to Le Monde’s analysis, recent developments suggest the conflict could extend beyond Ukraine’s borders, potentially affecting countries like Poland and Latvia. Behind Putin’s remarks lies Russia’s response to London and Washington’s potential authorization of long-range ballistic missiles (some with a range of 560 km) to strike targets deep inside Russia. In retaliation, the Russian military may immediately target strategic locations in Ukraine, such as Kyiv and Lviv, as well as areas near Warsaw and London.
Internal Political Developments Increase Western Uncertainty
Le Monde also notes that EU countries are inclined to limit Ukraine’s attacks on Russian-occupied territories. Internal political developments in the US, France, and Germany, as well as the ongoing US election campaign, are influencing these decisions. Experts suggest that a Western decision on this matter is not expected in the near future.
Olivier Schmitt, a professor at the Military Conflict Research Center at the University of Southern Denmark, believes a decision on Kyiv’s use of long-range weapons against Russia will not be made anytime soon. In his comments to Le Monde, he explains that the US election campaign is ongoing, and France and Germany are showing signs of internal political crises.
In his Thursday speech, Putin clearly stated that using long-range Western weapons against Russia would mean that NATO and the US are directly at war with Russia. In contrast, Kyiv’s general stance is not only to seek permission from the West to use these weapons but also to obtain more new weapons. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested that the policy on long-range weapons might be reviewed, while it is claimed that Zelensky has presented a list of possible targets to the West.
Cold War Reflexes and the Moscow-London-Washington Axis
Meanwhile, it’s already known that the UK has allowed Ukraine to attack Russian targets with Storm Shadow missiles. According to Bloomberg, after Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Kyiv on September 11th, London and Paris requested Ukraine to present a plan for using long-range missiles against military targets inside Russia, without lifting restrictions on their use.
In a meeting at the White House, US President Biden and UK Prime Minister Starmer discussed the Ukraine-Russia war, the crisis in the Middle East, and developments in the Indo-Pacific region. During this meeting, which took place amid debates over whether to lift restrictions on US-supplied long-range missiles for Ukraine, both leaders expressed full support for Ukraine while sending a warning to Moscow. Biden stated, “It is clear that Putin will not emerge victorious from this war; Ukraine will prevail.” When asked about Putin’s comments on the possibility of a direct confrontation between the US and Russia, Biden replied, “I don’t think about Vladimir Putin too much.”
According to ABC News, Zelensky gave Blinken a list of possible targets. Before that, The Guardian had reported that London had already decided to allow Ukraine to launch Storm Shadow cruise missiles at Russian targets, though this decision would not be made public. The Times wrote that France also supported allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range Western weapons, but Kyiv was awaiting Washington’s approval.
Given these developments, Putin stated on September 12th that the use of long-range Western weapons to strike Russia would mean “NATO countries, the US, and European countries are at war with Russia.”
The UK Doesn’t Want Direct Conflict With Russia, But…
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer commented on Putin’s remarks about the West’s long-range weapons support to Ukraine, saying, “The UK is not seeking direct conflict with Russia but will continue to defend Ukraine’s right to legitimate self-defense.” It is also known that the UK is coordinating strategic and tactical discussions on Ukraine’s defense with the US. In his statement, Putin also mentioned that Western countries provide direct data support to Ukraine’s attacks on Russia using NATO satellites, thereby changing the nature of the conflict, which could have serious consequences. Starmer, however, did not agree with this assessment, stating that Russia had started the conflict and that Western support for Ukraine was legitimate.
Western countries had previously rejected Ukraine’s requests to strike Russia with long-range weapons. However, according to Politico, the situation changed dramatically due to information suggesting that Iran had supplied missiles to Russia, even though Moscow and Tehran denied such accusations. A British official responsible for defense in the Baltic region, speaking anonymously to Politico, stated, “The clock in Washington started ticking because of Iranian missiles.” He noted that discussions are ongoing about which targets Ukraine will be allowed to strike and how far from the border those targets can be.
In conclusion, EU countries are cautious about Ukraine’s attacks and believe they should remain limited. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has stated that Ukraine will not be allowed to attack deep inside Russia with German weapons, believing such attacks would cause problems. Scholz’s stance highlights the differing views within the Western alliance on Ukraine’s requests for long-range weapons and potential targets. The uncertainty surrounding how Ukraine will use Western support for its strategic goals is currently being discussed between the US and its European allies. In the coming days, there is a high risk that the war in the region could escalate into a full-scale Russia-NATO armed conflict.
