CUMALİ ÖNAL
The world started the new week with an active Ukraine agenda. While high-level Russian and American diplomats met in Saudi Arabia, Ankara simultaneously hosted the Ukrainian leader. Meanwhile, Paris brought together European leaders to establish a common Ukraine policy.
None of these three critical meetings yielded results that could change the course of the war. However, Europe’s internal divisions, Trump’s unpredictability, and Ukraine’s growing desperation are the main factors shaping the process and making it even more dangerous.
So, if we take a closer look at these three meetings…
What does Ukraine have to do with Saudi Arabia?
The main agenda of Trump’s potential visit to Saudi Arabia will not be limited to Ukraine. He will attempt to achieve multiple objectives simultaneously.
In January, Trump made headlines by meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as the first foreign leader he engaged with after taking office. This meeting followed Trump’s statement that he would make his first international visit to Riyadh if Saudi Arabia invested $450-500 billion in the U.S. During the meeting, the Crown Prince announced that Saudi Arabia would invest $600 billion in the U.S., while Trump stated that he would push for this amount to reach $1 trillion.
Thus, the most significant reason why Ukraine-related talks are being held in Saudi Arabia is to secure billions of dollars in investments while also boosting the diplomatic prestige of the Saudi leader.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has been one of the strongest critics of Trump’s Gaza plan, which includes elements of ethnic cleansing. Riyadh is planning to hold a Gaza summit this month with Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates. If Trump visits Saudi Arabia, there is a possibility that he may abandon this controversial Gaza plan. However, in return, Saudi Arabia could face pressure to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel.
U.S.-Russia Talks in Saudi Arabia
Although high-level diplomats from both sides participated in the U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia, no concrete agreements were publicly disclosed. Even if certain agreements were reached, they are expected to be announced by Trump and Putin themselves.
Was Turkey Given a New Role?
While the U.S.-Russia talks were happening in Saudi Arabia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Ankara raised important questions.
Is Turkey independently trying to create an alternative path to the Russia-U.S. plan? Or is Zelensky’s visit a result of a specific role assigned to Turkey?
There is no clear answer to these questions yet. However, in the short term, neither the Trump-Putin talks nor Zelensky’s visit to Ankara is expected to yield tangible results. The real decision-makers on Ukraine are the European countries.
Europe is Fragmented
For Ukraine, the real concern is not U.S. policies but Europe’s internal divisions. Trump has recognized this and does not take European countries seriously, excluding them from discussions about Ukraine.
This division was evident at the extraordinary meeting of European leaders in Paris on Monday. While the U.K. and France led a bloc advocating for the deployment of peacekeeping forces to Ukraine, Germany rejected this proposal as “highly inappropriate while the war is ongoing.”
Europe’s fragmentation was also clearly visible at last week’s Munich Security Conference. U.S. Vice President JD Vance, speaking in front of hundreds of European diplomats, argued that the biggest threat to Europe was not Russia or China, but Europe’s own departure from its core values. Vance, who praised far-right parties for their anti-immigration rhetoric, further fueled controversy by meeting with the leader of Germany’s far-right AfD party, which has become a major concern for the German government.
Although European countries have declared their commitment to increasing military aid to Ukraine even without U.S. support, how far they can go without American backing remains a major question mark. Germany’s cautious stance, in particular, is rendering Europe even more ineffective.
