M. Ahmet Karabay
I don’t know if you’re still among those who believe a war won’t happen. If NATO Commander Admiral Rob Bauer’s call to the business world to “prepare for war” and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s surprise visit to Ankara haven’t convinced you, I have little else to say. Those who think otherwise might as well stop reading here. I’d like to engage in a bit of conversation with those whose minds are still uncertain.
Since I began writing for TR724, I’ve been emphasizing that the world is entering a turbulent era and warning that this fire will engulf the globe. On January 29, 2023, I penned an article titled, “Do You Hear the Footsteps of World War III?”
I’ve addressed this more frequently since then, writing several pieces recently. Most notably, on November 13, I highlighted a “dangerous 2.5-month gap in the world,” emphasizing the critical period until U.S. President-elect Trump takes office.
President Joe Biden’s permission for Ukraine to use missiles capable of hitting deep inside Russia has indeed made this period crucial. Following Biden’s move, European allies also granted missile-use permissions, escalating the conflict and making Ukraine an even greater target for Russia.
Following NATO members’ decision in favor of Ukraine using missiles, Turkey—already struggling economically—was among the first to be shaken. However, the most significant blow was dealt to the Russian Ruble.
After the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Russia’s Gazprombank and several financial institutions last week, the Ruble went into a rapid decline. Over the past year, it has lost 25% of its value, 14% in the last month, and 6.7% in the past three days.
The West is striving to achieve results by providing military aid to Ukraine on the battlefield and leveraging their strong economies globally to pressure Russia. This strategy has remained unchanged since the day Ukraine was invaded.
NATO Commander Bauer’s “Be Prepared” Statement
NATO’s Military Committee Chairman Admiral Rob Bauer made a critical statement a few days ago. His speech at an event organized by the European Policy Centre (EPC) in Brussels on November 25 signaled a comprehensive Western declaration of war against Russia.
Addressing business representatives, Admiral Bauer emphasized the need to move production lines from China back to their home countries, urging them to prepare for a “war scenario.”
Bauer warned that businesses could face threats like blackmail and sabotage during wartime and continued:
“Businesses must prepare for a War Time Scenario and adjust their production and distribution accordingly. Because while battles are won by armies, wars are won by economies.”
The most alarming part of Bauer’s statements was not the above. He suggested that NATO might need to conduct preemptive precision strikes on Russian territory.
Bauer also had advice for ordinary people, emphasizing that the first 36 hours of a conflict would be critical. He advised having drinking water and a flashlight with batteries on hand, stating:
“In the first 36 hours, a battery-powered radio and a flashlight could make all the difference.”
A Parallel Agenda: Bauer and Rutte
Admiral Bauer’s statements were not made in isolation. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s surprise visit to Ankara coincided with Bauer’s remarks, revealing a coordinated effort.
During his visit to the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Rutte met with President Erdoğan, accompanied by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Defense Minister Yaşar Güler. While the visit was officially attributed to discussions about NATO’s 2026 summit in Turkey, the true agenda—nuclear threats, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the escalating violence in the Middle East—was clear.
Rutte’s statements on his personal social media account confirmed these issues were at the forefront. His final comment carried significant implications:
“Turkey makes invaluable contributions to NATO.”
This may seem like praise, but it underscores Turkey’s central role in this emerging conflict.
Turkey’s Role and Forthcoming Military Acquisitions
Following Rutte’s visit, Defense Minister Yaşar Güler’s comments on new fighter jet acquisitions were more about framing it as a domestic victory. His statement that Turkey’s own KAAN fighter jet had shifted international attitudes sounded like a message to the ruling party’s base:
Turkey is poised to acquire:
- 40 new F-16 fighter jets,
- Modernization of 79 F-16s by TUSAŞ,
- Delivery of six pre-paid F-35 jets,
- A proposal for new F-35 acquisitions,
- 70 Viper jets (F-16V), combining F-22 and F-35 DNA.
If these aircraft are delivered quickly, one can’t help but recall the roles of the Goeben and Breslau ships in 1914.
On the economic front, another potential concession involves expanding poppy cultivation, a seemingly unrelated but noteworthy development.
Domestic Repression Amid Global Turmoil
As the world grapples with these challenges, Turkey’s leadership continues to suppress dissent, silence opposition, and cut funding to municipalities, leaving them unable to function. Only loyalists are allowed to thrive, with no room for others.
